The Indian stock market is expected to open higher on Monday (June 3) after a five-day losing streak. The Lok Sabha elections exit polls have predicted a landslide victory for the BJP, while better than expected GDP data also came on Friday. The Sensex is likely to open around 350 points higher, while the Nifty may gain around 100 points.
This week, Plain Facts presents a compilation of data-driven insights into key events and trends shaping India. Despite the relentless heat and economic fluctuations, there are signs of growth in various sectors. In this round-up, we explore the severe heatwaves affecting India, the upcoming release of GDP growth figures, the rise in luxury home prices, a pilgrimage boom, increased loan support for states, surging rural expenditures, and sluggish auto sales. Additionally, our Chart of the Week highlights the increasing proportion of educated MPs in the Lok Sabha over the years.
Pakistan’s economy experienced a resurgence in the third quarter of the 2023-2024 financial year, with the gross domestic product (GDP) expanding by 2.09%. This growth is primarily attributed to a strong performance in the agriculture sector, aiding overall economic recovery. The agriculture sector recorded an impressive 6.25% growth, driven by bumper harvests in wheat, cotton, and rice. The robust agricultural performance offset slower growth in the industry and services sectors, both of which registered a modest 1.21% increase. Pakistan’s central bank has projected a real GDP growth of 2-3% for the current fiscal year 2024, indicating a positive economic outlook.
The US economy is expected to have experienced a slowdown in growth during the first quarter of 2023. Economists anticipate an annualized growth rate of 2.5%, down from 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2022. This projection is based on the continued strength of consumer spending, a resilient labor market, and investments in nonresidential fixed investment and inventories by businesses. However, residential investment may have declined due to a decrease in multifamily homebuilding. Despite the expected slowdown, a strong labor market and pickup in manufacturing suggest the possibility of an upside surprise in GDP growth. However, market participants are hoping for a softer reading that could lead to earlier interest rate cuts. Strong GDP data could have positive implications for revenue growth but could also delay rate cuts.
The US economy grew at a slower pace in the first quarter of 2023, while inflation accelerated, according to estimates by the Commerce Department. Consumer spending remained strong, driven by a resilient labor market and pent-up demand. The economy is expected to continue growing above the Fed’s non-inflationary rate, but some economists caution that sentiment surveys indicate a potential slowdown later in the year. The Fed is expected to delay cutting interest rates until September despite the slowdown in economic growth.
The U.S. economy is projected to have expanded at a 2.4% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2023, reflecting solid progress despite a slight slowdown from the fourth quarter’s 3.4% growth. The economy remains resilient, supported by a robust labor market and strong consumer spending, though cooling trends are emerging. Some indicators suggest GDP gains could exceed the consensus forecast, with estimates as high as 3.1% from Goldman Sachs.
