IMD’s Heat Wave Forecasting: Accuracy and Science Explained

India has experienced increased heat wave frequency in recent years, leading to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) issuing heat wave alerts. Despite variations in definitions, the IMD uses specific criteria based on maximum temperature deviations to identify heat waves. Advances in data collection and numerical weather prediction models have significantly improved forecasting accuracy by up to 88% within 24 hours. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model has been found to be particularly effective in predicting heat waves in India.

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