On the day of the US presidential election, prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket experienced a dramatic surge in popularity, reaching unprecedented rankings on the Apple App Store. This spike was driven by heightened user interest in predicting election outcomes, showcasing the growing allure of these platforms.
A prominent economist has observed a significant shift in prediction market odds for the 2024 presidential election, with former President Donald Trump’s chances dropping. This change has sparked speculation about the decreasing influence of a major player who had been heavily betting on Trump’s victory.
Kalshi, a regulated election betting platform, has seen explosive growth, surpassing $200 million in trades and outperforming Cash App in U.S. finance app rankings. CEO Tarek Mansour highlights the platform’s transparency and user-driven probabilities, which differentiate it from traditional polls and offshore betting platforms. The platform’s success follows a court ruling allowing Kalshi to offer election contracts, opening the door for other major players like Robinhood and Interactive Brokers to enter the market. Kalshi’s platform stands out with its diverse betting options and liquidity, enabling users to place large bets without influencing market prices.
Prediction market Kalshi has resumed taking bets on the US congressional elections after a court ruling overturned a ban imposed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This decision marks a significant step towards legalizing prediction markets for political events in the US. Kalshi now offers contracts on the outcome of the Senate and House elections, alongside a contract on the 2024 presidential election.
A federal judge has ruled in favor of prediction-market startup Kalshi, allowing them to offer contracts for betting on the outcome of congressional elections. This decision could pave the way for legalized betting on U.S. elections, bringing a new dimension to political engagement and analysis.
