Cloudy Forecast for UPS: Downgraded to Strong Sell amid Slowing Growth and Rising Costs

UPS, the $124 billion carrier, has struggled since inflation began to accelerate in early 2021. Data shows UPS is down 10.44% since May 2021, while the S&P 500 has gained 25.75% during the same period. Management’s guidance suggests little to no revenue growth this year, with rising costs and declining shipping volumes. The company’s aggressive capital expenditure plans and reliance on automation fail to address its dependence on unionized labor and the challenges posed by competitors like Amazon. Analysts predict only 4-5% revenue growth for UPS over the next several years, yet the stock trades at a growth multiple of nearly 18x predicted forward GAAP earnings. Given its slowing revenue, declining EPS, and valuation concerns, UPS should not be trading at more than a multiple of 12-14x expected forward earnings.

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