Polymarket, the cryptocurrency-based prediction market platform known for its accurate presidential election predictions, is making a comeback in the US market. Following a successful run with offshore users, CEO Shayne Coplan has announced plans to re-enter the US, signaling a potential resurgence of political prediction markets in the country.
Shayne Coplan, CEO of Polymarket, argues that prediction markets, like his platform, offer a more accurate and faster view of election outcomes compared to traditional media. He highlights Polymarket’s early prediction of Trump’s win in key states, highlighting its potential to reshape how we consume and interpret political news.
A pseudonymous Polymarket trader, known as ‘Redegen’, suffered a massive $6.7 million loss after placing significant bets on Kamala Harris winning the 2020 presidential election. The trader, who now goes by ‘theRealTaylorSwift’, held onto his bets despite anticipating a Trump victory in the electoral college, believing Polymarket underestimated Harris’s chances. The losses highlight the inherent risk and volatility of prediction markets and crypto trading.
Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi are showing conflicting odds for the 2024 presidential election, with Kamala Harris gaining a slight edge over Donald Trump. Top traders on Polymarket are placing significant bets on the Vice President, particularly veteran trader Domer and all-time leading trader, who have expressed confidence in her chances of winning. These developments are generating significant buzz in the political and financial spheres.
A significant player on Polymarket, known as ‘larpas,’ sold $3 million worth of shares betting on Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election. This sell-off followed a recommendation from renowned cryptocurrency trader Gigantic-Cassocked-Rebirth (GCR) to take profits on positions tied to Trump, citing a right-wing skew in prediction markets.
A mysterious whale trader has become Donald Trump’s biggest supporter in the 2024 presidential election market on Polymarket, placing a massive bet of over $13 million on his victory. This move highlights the intense speculation and diverse opinions surrounding the upcoming election, as other traders bet on Vice President Kamala Harris and other outcomes.
A professional politics trader, known as ‘Domer,’ has placed a significant bet on Vice President Kamala Harris winning the 2024 election. His investment thesis, exceeding $500,000, is based on several factors, including surprising polls showing Harris gaining momentum, Republican strategic shifts, and the perceived decline of MAGA’s influence. Domer argues that despite Biden’s low popularity, Republicans have faced setbacks in post-2020 elections, suggesting waning support for Trumpism. He believes Harris has a 55-60% chance of winning the presidency, despite betting markets favoring Trump. However, he criticizes Nate Silver for including ‘fake poll’ data in his model, which he sees as a reason for the discrepancy in their predictions.
A prominent economist has observed a significant shift in prediction market odds for the 2024 presidential election, with former President Donald Trump’s chances dropping. This change has sparked speculation about the decreasing influence of a major player who had been heavily betting on Trump’s victory.
The 2024 US Presidential election is shaping up to be a fascinating battle of economic philosophies, as evidenced by the stark contrast in betting patterns on Polymarket, a prediction market platform. Data from Primo Data and Polymarketanalytics reveals that Donald Trump’s supporters are heavily concentrated, while Kamala Harris’s backers are more diverse and evenly distributed, mirroring the candidates’ respective policy stances.
A prominent Polymarket trader known as ‘Redegen’ has reaffirmed his confidence in Vice President Kamala Harris winning the popular vote in the 2024 presidential election, despite his multi-million dollar bet taking a significant hit. Redegen sees the odds of former President Donald Trump winning narrowing within a week and believes Harris’s focus on economic policies benefiting working families will resonate with voters.
