Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Turnout Drops in Hindi-Speaking States

The first phase of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections witnessed a disappointing voter turnout of 66.1%, a decrease of 4% compared to 2019. The decline was observed in 19 out of 21 states participating in this phase. Analyzing the results based on regional categorization, Hindi-speaking states experienced the highest drop in turnout, followed by East and Northeast states, and lastly, the rest of India. The BJP’s traditionally strong position in Hindi-speaking states was challenged by a significant decline in turnout. This trend was further supported by the comparison of turnout figures in seats won by the NDA and the Opposition bloc in 2019, with the former experiencing a steeper drop. Additionally, the impact of the double-engine sarkar on turnout was analyzed, revealing lower voter enthusiasm in states where the BJP lost state elections in 2018. Higher than average declines were observed in constituencies associated with farm protests, youth aspirations, and socio-economic disparities. While it is premature to speculate on whether these trends will translate into a shift in election outcomes, they serve as valuable indicators for political parties and analysts.

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