The U.S. stock market made a strong start to 2024, with the S&P 500 index rising 10.6% in the first quarter. This marked the index’s best first-quarter performance since 2019. The rally was driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by March 2024, but those expectations have since been halved to possibly three cuts, with June now being the anticipated start date.
While the market has remained resilient, inflation has remained a concern, leading to a resetting of the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield from below 4% to 4.2% by the end of the quarter. Bonds enjoyed the decline in rates into the end of 2023, but the resetting of rate cut expectations has taken the broad bond market down -0.8% year-to-date.
Despite the challenges, cyclical stocks, led by the energy sector, surged in March, broadening the U.S. stock market beyond the seven dominant stocks that had led the rally. However, from a size standpoint, large caps remained the preferred choice, with mid and small caps lagging.