A recent poll in Taiwan has revealed a fascinating dichotomy: while most Taiwanese citizens are willing to defend their island against a Chinese attack, the majority believe that Beijing is unlikely to invade within the next five years. This finding underscores the complex and often tense relationship between Taiwan and China, which has been marked by growing political and military pressure from the mainland in recent years.
The poll, commissioned by the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, was conducted last month and released ahead of Taiwan’s National Day on Thursday. This day marks the occasion of President Lai Ching-te’s speech, which is likely to address the ongoing tensions with China. Beijing’s claim over Taiwan as part of its territory has been a long-standing issue, and recent years have seen an escalation of Chinese military activity around the island. This includes a near-daily military presence and three rounds of large-scale war games within the past two years, where Chinese warships and warplanes have conducted maneuvers simulating an encirclement of Taiwan.
Adding to the concerns, CIA Director William Burns stated last year that Chinese President Xi Jinping had issued orders for the Chinese military to be prepared for a successful invasion of Taiwan by 2027. This timeline has been widely discussed, though its accuracy remains uncertain. Despite this perceived threat, the poll found that a significant majority of Taiwanese citizens, 67.8%, expressed willingness to fight in defense of their island. However, a notable 23.6% indicated they would not be willing to participate in such a conflict.
The poll also reveals that a significant portion of Taiwanese citizens, nearly 64%, perceive China’s territorial ambitions as a serious threat. However, an even larger percentage, 61%, believe that China is unlikely to launch an attack in the next five years. This discrepancy suggests that while the Taiwanese populace is aware of the potential for conflict, they may not consider an invasion to be an immediate or unavoidable event.
Lee Wen-chung, the chief executive of a Taipei-based think tank, explained that the 2027 timeline for a potential Chinese invasion is linked to the possibility of Xi seeking a fourth term as President. He suggested that Xi might implement tough measures to solidify his position and secure another term. The United States, Taiwan’s key ally and primary arms supplier, remains a significant factor in the equation. Over 52% of respondents expressed belief that the US would send troops to aid Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. However, only around 40% thought Washington would deploy its navy to disrupt a Chinese blockade of Taiwan. This suggests a cautious optimism regarding American support, with a recognition of the potential risks and complexities involved.
US Vice President Kamala Harris, who is also a potential Democratic presidential candidate, recently stated that Washington should avoid conflict with China. While she acknowledged the US commitment to supporting Taiwan, she refrained from explicitly stating whether Washington would use military force to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack. This nuanced position highlights the delicate balance the US is attempting to strike between supporting its ally while avoiding direct confrontation with China.
