The year 2027 looms large in Washington’s geopolitical calculations. US intelligence predicts that China will be prepared and capable of invading Taiwan by then. While this invasion could occur sooner, as evidenced by recent military drills in the South China Sea, it’s equally possible that it may never happen. However, President-elect Donald Trump’s election victory has cast a shadow of uncertainty over Taiwan’s future, leaving the island nation questioning the US’s commitment to its defense.
Trump’s past comments suggest a more non-interventionist approach. He has publicly questioned the benefits of defending Taiwan, even suggesting that Taiwan should pay for US protection. In a June interview with Bloomberg Businessweek, he stated, “I think Taiwan should pay us for defense. You know, we’re no different than an insurance company. Taiwan doesn’t give us anything.” His skepticism regarding US aid to Taiwan has persisted, as he accused Taiwan of “stealing” the US microchip industry during an October appearance on the Joe Rogan podcast.
Despite Trump’s seemingly less-than-enthusiastic stance, his close advisors reportedly maintain a hawkish stance on the Taiwan issue, according to Lyle Goldstein, director for Asia engagement at Defense Priorities. Goldstein highlighted that during Trump’s first term, his advisors took various measures to defend Taiwan, suggesting a more robust commitment than Trump’s public comments might imply.
Trump himself has hinted at a more aggressive strategy in the event of a Chinese invasion. During an interview with the Wall Street Journal, he stated that he would “tax” China with tariffs ranging from 150% to 200% if they invaded Taiwan. He even threatened a complete trade ban between the two nations, emphasizing a strong economic response. However, he also expressed admiration for his relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping, claiming a strong personal bond and emphasizing a desire for peaceful relations.
While the potential for direct military intervention remains unclear, the US continues to bolster Taiwan’s defense capabilities. The Biden administration approved a $2 billion arms sale to Taiwan in October, including advanced radar systems and anti-missile systems. Additionally, the US military has explored the use of drones and other unmanned technologies to deter a Chinese invasion, potentially avoiding the need for direct troop deployment. Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, envisions a scenario where the US could make life “utterly miserable” for China during an invasion, buying time for other defenses to take effect.
However, there are those who believe that Trump’s approach to China will focus primarily on economic warfare, rather than military intervention. Goldstein argues that Trump’s strategy could involve tougher economic measures while simultaneously de-escalating tensions on the diplomatic and military front. He also emphasizes the importance of solidifying US alliances with countries like Japan and the Philippines, which share strategic interests in the region.
Despite the uncertainties surrounding the US’s commitment to Taiwan’s defense, one thing remains clear: the Taiwan Strait is a powder keg, and the region faces heightened tensions. The US has long adhered to a One China policy, maintaining strategic ambiguity regarding its defense of Taiwan. While Biden initially appeared to favor a more explicit commitment to defend Taiwan, his staff subsequently walked back his statements to avoid undermining the policy of strategic ambiguity.
The US’s stance on Taiwan will likely continue to be a significant focus of international attention, particularly given the increasing assertiveness of China in the region. The upcoming administration’s actions and policies will have a profound impact on the future of Taiwan and the delicate balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region.
