The 2022 midterm elections are heating up, and two key races are attracting national attention: the Texas Senate race featuring incumbent Republican Ted Cruz and his Democratic challenger Colin Allred, and the Nebraska Senate race where Republican incumbent Deb Fischer is facing a surprisingly strong challenge from independent candidate Dan Osborn.
Recent polls reveal a tight contest in both states. In Texas, a New York Times and Siena College survey found Cruz leading Allred by a narrow margin of 50 to 46%. While this lead might seem comfortable, it reflects a significant change from Cruz’s 2018 re-election victory where he defeated Democrat Beto O’Rourke by a more comfortable margin of 3%.
The stakes are high in Texas, with Democrats sensing a potential pickup opportunity. Allred, a former NFL player and current House representative, has been gaining traction among voters. He has outperformed Vice President Kamala Harris in recent polls, garnering support from 46% of Texas residents compared to Harris’s 42%. He also holds a significant lead over Harris among Black and Hispanic voters.
Meanwhile, in Nebraska, incumbent Republican Deb Fischer finds herself in a more precarious position. A New York Times survey of 1,194 likely voters revealed that Fischer is trailing her independent opponent, Dan Osborn, by a narrow margin of 48 to 46%. The poll also showed a significant number of undecided voters (5%), indicating that the race is still fluid.
Osborn, a union leader and mechanic, has managed to garner considerable support, particularly among independent voters. This unexpected popularity has taken the Fischer campaign by surprise, prompting a last-minute effort to shore up support. The Mitch McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund has launched a $3 million ad buy in the state to bolster Fischer’s campaign, and she has also received support from Republican Senator Chuck Grassley from neighboring Iowa.
It’s worth noting that Osborn’s ability to compete against an incumbent is unusual. Independent candidates often struggle to gain traction, especially against established politicians. However, with no Democratic candidate nominated in the race, Osborn has a larger pool of potential voters to tap into.
As the midterm elections approach, these tight Senate races will continue to be closely watched, offering a glimpse into the evolving political landscape and the potential for shifts in power in the US Senate.
