Tesla’s highly anticipated Cybertruck may not hit the road until 2026, according to Future Fund managing partner Gary Black. This delay casts a shadow on the company’s plans to launch a more affordable, compact electric vehicle (EV) priced between $25,000 and $30,000, potentially impacting its 2025 growth targets.
Black, in a recent X post, pointed to Elon Musk’s comments during Tesla’s third-quarter earnings call. Musk linked the development of a cheaper EV to a projected 20-30% year-over-year volume growth in 2025. However, Black asserts that this cheaper model, featuring four seats, a steering wheel, and pedals, won’t launch until after the Cybertruck’s 2026 release. This strategic decision, according to Black, aims to prevent cannibalization of sales for Tesla’s existing Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during the crucial fourth quarter.
The speculation surrounding Tesla’s affordable EV isn’t the only point of discussion among analysts. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives highlights another crucial milestone for investors: the formal federal framework for Full Self-Driving (FSD). Ives believes this regulatory clarity, expected to emerge as a priority for the Department of Transportation, will be a significant catalyst for Tesla’s autonomous driving and AI ambitions in 2025 and 2026. This regulatory approval could drastically alter the landscape of the self-driving car market and offer a considerable competitive advantage for Tesla.
Adding to the complexity, the autonomous vehicle sector faces substantial skepticism. Lucid Group CEO Peter Rawlinson recently predicted that fully autonomous vehicles won’t become a reality until the 2030s, a timeline significantly diverging from Tesla’s aggressive projections. This skepticism underscores the challenges and uncertainties inherent in the rapidly evolving autonomous driving technology sector.
Despite these uncertainties, Tesla reported strong third-quarter revenue of $25.18 billion, an 8% increase year-over-year. However, this figure slightly missed the Street’s consensus estimate of $25.37 billion. This slight shortfall, while not disastrous, suggests that the market may be increasingly scrutinizing Tesla’s performance against its ambitious goals.
The delay of the Cybertruck, the uncertainties surrounding the affordable EV, and the pending FSD regulations create a mixed outlook for Tesla’s stock. While the stock finished Friday up 3.69% at $345.16, with a year-to-date surge of 38.94%, the consensus rating remains “Neutral,” according to Benzinga Pro, with a significant gap between the highest price target ($400) and the consensus target ($232.20), suggesting potential downward pressure. The market’s reaction to these developments will be crucial in determining Tesla’s future trajectory.
Recent sightings of the Cybertruck undergoing tests at Giga Texas have fueled excitement, but Black’s prediction adds a layer of cautious optimism. The coming year promises significant developments that will shape Tesla’s path in the increasingly competitive EV market and redefine the future of autonomous driving technology.