Tesla’s ambitious plans for autonomous driving are facing increasing scrutiny, with prominent Tesla investor Gary Black expressing doubts about the company’s ability to maintain a monopoly in the unsupervised L4/L5 autonomy market. Black, a long-time supporter of Tesla, believes that other companies will achieve and receive approval for unsupervised Level 4/5 autonomy around the same time as Tesla, challenging the notion of Tesla’s dominance in the sector.
Black points to the progress of competitors like Baidu, Mobileye, and Alphabet’s Waymo, who have already received approvals to deploy their autonomous vehicles. He also highlights the increasing segmentation between consumer and industrial-strength autonomous vehicles, suggesting that Tesla’s focus on consumer vehicles may hinder its progress in the commercial robotaxi market.
One of Black’s main concerns revolves around the timeline and reliability of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology. He questions the lack of evidence supporting Tesla FSD’s ability to drive unsupervised, particularly considering that companies like Baidu and Google have already received robotaxi licenses. He points out that Tesla will need to demonstrate its FSD technology’s effectiveness and safety to obtain similar approvals, potentially facing challenges similar to Waymo, which has encountered operational difficulties in San Francisco.
The debate over Tesla’s autonomous driving future is not new. A recent poll conducted by Black revealed that a significant majority of respondents believe Tesla’s FSD technology won’t receive approval until 2026 or later. This skepticism highlights the uncertainty surrounding Tesla’s autonomous vehicle deployment timeline and the potential challenges it may face in meeting regulatory requirements.
Black’s skepticism underscores the evolving landscape of autonomous driving, where Tesla is no longer the sole player. The emergence of strong competitors and the increasing focus on safety and regulatory compliance are creating a more complex and competitive environment for the future of autonomous vehicles.
