Tesla’s Busy October: Deliveries, Robotaxi Day, and Earnings on the Horizon

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) has a busy October ahead, filled with significant events that could shape the company’s trajectory. Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of third-quarter earnings, delivery figures, and the highly anticipated Robotaxi Day.

Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas, who holds a Buy rating on Tesla with a $254 price target, believes that while Robotaxi Day promises to be a major event, investors should prioritize the delivery numbers before getting caught up in the excitement of autonomous vehicles.

In an investor note titled “business before pleasure,” Gianarikas emphasizes the importance of the third-quarter delivery figures, stating they are a critical benchmark for Tesla’s performance. He acknowledges that while Robotaxi Day is a significant milestone, the delivery figures provide a more tangible measure of the company’s current health.

Gianarikas has adjusted his third-quarter delivery estimates downward after analyzing global data. However, he remains optimistic about Tesla’s overall performance, noting that the company’s momentum in China and attractive financing options worldwide are key drivers for his estimates.

The analyst expects Tesla to deliver 469,200 vehicles in the third quarter, a slight decrease from his previous estimate of 480,000 but still above the consensus estimate of 458,000.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, Gianarikas maintains his delivery estimate of 552,000 vehicles. He bases this forecast on Tesla’s historical performance, which shows an average quarterly growth of 20.4% between the third and fourth quarters since 2019, and the potential launch of new vehicles by the end of the year.

For the full year, the analyst anticipates Tesla delivering 1.85 million vehicles, slightly lower than his previous estimate of 1.86 million.

Regarding Tesla’s third-quarter financial results, Gianarikas has lowered his non-GAAP earnings per share estimates from 98 cents to 75 cents per share.

Tesla is expected to release its third-quarter earnings in October, likely after the Robotaxi Day on October 11. With these crucial events on the horizon, October promises to be a significant month for the electric vehicle giant.

Currently, Tesla’s stock trades at $228.97, with a 52-week trading range of $138.80 to $278.98. Year-to-date, the stock is down 8%.

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