Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is gearing up to release its third-quarter delivery report, and the market is buzzing with anticipation. While most analysts are optimistic about the company exceeding expectations, some are predicting a slight miss.
Gene Munster, a prominent tech venture capitalist and Managing Partner of Deepwater Asset Management, believes Tesla might miss the consensus estimate of 465,000 deliveries, a 7% year-over-year increase. However, he doesn’t see this as a major setback. “This should be a ‘heads Tesla wins, tails they don’t lose number’ because deliveries should return to growth,” Munster stated on X (formerly Twitter). He projects deliveries to reach 452,000, representing a 4% growth even if it falls short of the consensus.
Despite potential challenges, there are compelling reasons for optimism surrounding Tesla’s Q3 performance. Notably, the company seems to have turned the corner after experiencing declining deliveries in the first half of the year. The recent surge in sales, particularly in China, is a strong indicator of Tesla’s resilience. Gary Black, Managing Partner of Future Fund LLC, highlights the robust insured vehicle registrations data from China, showcasing a 18.5% year-over-year and 19.9% quarter-over-quarter growth in deliveries. This points towards Tesla’s best-ever quarter in China.
Other sell-side analysts like Barclays’ Dan Levy and Wedbush’s Daniel Ives also anticipate a beat relative to expectations, citing China’s strong performance as a key driver. Furthermore, the upcoming launch of Tesla’s robotaxis on October 10 is generating considerable interest and potential for growth. Although expectations for the initial launch are somewhat muted, most analysts remain optimistic about the long-term potential of robotaxis.
Tesla’s share price has rebounded in recent weeks, reflecting investor confidence in the company’s future prospects. The upcoming delivery report, the Robotaxi Day announcements, and the third-quarter earnings report, typically released in the second half of October, will be crucial factors shaping Tesla’s trajectory in the coming months. The company’s success hinges on these key events, and investors are closely watching to see if Tesla can maintain its upward momentum.
