Thailand’s Constitutional Court is set to deliver a crucial verdict on August 14, deciding the fate of Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin. This comes just days after the court dissolved the Move Forward party, the winner of the 2023 election, further emphasizing the judiciary’s immense influence in the country’s prolonged power struggle. These developments have intensified political uncertainty and raised concerns about potential disruptions to Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, which has endured two decades of sporadic unrest, marked by the dissolution of multiple parties and government overthrows orchestrated by court rulings and military coups.
Srettha Thavisin faces the possibility of dismissal after senators, appointed by a military junta, alleged he violated the constitution by appointing a former lawyer, Pichit Chuenban, to his cabinet. Pichit, who previously represented the influential Shinawatra family, the founders of Srettha’s ruling Pheu Thai party, was found in contempt of court due to an alleged bribery attempt against court staff, an accusation never proven. While Srettha maintains his innocence and claims Pichit, who subsequently resigned, underwent thorough vetting, the senators argue the appointment failed to meet ethical standards. Srettha’s chief-of-staff expressed confidence in his survival of the judicial process.
The potential removal of Srettha adds to the existing uncertainty and market volatility, exacerbating his efforts to revitalize the economy. His signature $12.8 billion handout scheme has faced delays, and his popularity has dwindled. Should Srettha be dismissed, the formation of a new government will be necessary, requiring Pheu Thai to nominate a new candidate for prime minister to be voted upon by parliament. However, there are no guarantees of success. This vote could potentially pit Pheu Thai against its coalition partners or necessitate concessions in exchange for parliamentary votes, both scenarios potentially disrupting the governing alliance and causing a realignment of the cabinet and policies.
If Srettha steps down, the pool of potential prime minister candidates is limited to those designated by their parties before the last election. This includes Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Pheu Thai leader and daughter of prominent billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra; former Justice Minister Chaikasem Nitisiri; Interior Minister and Deputy Premier Anutin Charnvirakul; Energy Minister Pirapan Salirathavibhaga; and Prawit Wongsuwon, an influential former army chief who played a role in two coups.
The Constitutional Court’s decision to dissolve Move Forward on August 7 stemmed from the party’s campaign to amend a law safeguarding the monarchy from criticism. Eleven party executives received 10-year political bans. The court concluded that Move Forward improperly leveraged the royal family for electoral advantage, creating a conflict between the monarchy and the people. Despite the court’s January order to cease the campaign, Move Forward insists it did not undermine the crown but aimed to prevent the law from being misused. Move Forward, having secured the most seats in the recent election, was blocked from forming a government by lawmakers affiliated with the royalist military. The party’s dissolution drew criticism from major Western powers.
In response to the dissolution, Move Forward’s surviving 143 lawmakers formed a new entity called the People’s Party, which is now the largest in parliament. Led by Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, a 37-year-old cloud software executive who spearheaded a digital campaign strategy that propelled Move Forward to widespread support, the People’s Party promises to maintain its platform and controversially, revive the campaign to reform the law on royal insults while exercising caution. The People’s Party is poised to inherit and expand upon Move Forward’s substantial urban and progressive base, positioning it as a formidable force in the next election. However, it is likely to face opposition from Thailand’s traditional elite, including the conservative establishment, the royalist military leadership, and wealthy families who benefit from the business monopolies Move Forward sought to dismantle. The judiciary, which has repeatedly ruled against Move Forward’s predecessors, could emerge as the People’s Party’s most formidable opponent. The party’s stance on the royal insult law, a sensitive topic, could restrict its ability to forge alliances and garner bipartisan support for its legislative agenda.
