This Thanksgiving, millions of Americans can breathe a collective sigh of relief: the cost of their holiday feast is significantly lower than last year. For the second year in a row, prices for traditional Thanksgiving staples are dropping, offering a much-needed break for budgets stretched thin by persistent inflation. However, while the cost savings are welcome, the reality is that the price of a Thanksgiving meal remains higher than before the pandemic, highlighting the ongoing economic challenges many families face.
According to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s (AFBF) 39th annual Thanksgiving dinner cost survey, the average cost of a classic Thanksgiving meal for 10 people in 2024 is $58.08. This represents a 5% decrease from 2023’s average of $61.17 and a substantial 9% drop from the record high of $64.05 in 2022. While this downward trend is encouraging, it’s crucial to note that the cost is still a hefty 19% higher than in 2019, a pre-pandemic benchmark.
The star of the Thanksgiving table, the turkey, has played a pivotal role in this price reduction. A 16-pound turkey now averages $27, a 6% decrease from last year. Turkeys, which constitute a whopping 44% of the overall meal cost, have become more accessible despite a concerning 6% reduction in turkey supply in 2024—the lowest level since 1985, largely attributed to the lingering effects of the avian flu. This decline in supply, however, has been met with a corresponding decrease in demand, with per capita turkey consumption falling by approximately one pound.
“We are seeing modest improvements in the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner for a second year,” commented Zippy Duvall, President of the AFBF, “but America’s families, including farm families, are still being hurt by high inflation.” The AFBF survey meticulously tracked the prices of key ingredients, including turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, dinner rolls, frozen peas, cranberries, pumpkin pie mix, whipped cream, and whole milk. The results revealed a mixed bag:
Falling Costs:
Sweet potatoes experienced a dramatic 26.2% price drop, while frozen peas fell by 8%. Whole milk, a crucial ingredient for many Thanksgiving pies, is down 14% thanks to favorable weather conditions boosting dairy production.Rising Costs:
Conversely, processed foods like dinner rolls and cubed stuffing saw price increases exceeding 8%, primarily due to the rising labor costs, which increased almost 4% in the past year according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. A 30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix now costs $5.56, a 6% increase from last year and a staggering nearly 70% increase compared to five years ago.For those aiming for a more elaborate Thanksgiving spread, adding ham, russet potatoes, and frozen green beans brings the average cost to $77.34, still an 8% decrease from 2023. Major retailers are capitalizing on the desire for budget-friendly options, offering competitive Thanksgiving bundles. Walmart offers a 29-item bundle for under $55, serving eight people for less than $7 per person. Target has a similar deal for four, costing $20 – $5 less than last year. Aldi provides a meal for $47, even under 2019 prices. Meijer’s offering includes a $37 meal and frozen turkeys for as low as 49 cents a pound.
This easing of food inflation provides some much-needed relief after years of escalating grocery prices. The USDA reports a 23% increase in food prices between 2020 and 2023 due to pandemic-related disruptions, supply chain issues, and geopolitical factors such as the war in Ukraine. The impact of bird flu outbreaks alone has resulted in the culling of 14 million turkeys since 2022. While food price growth has slowed in 2023, experts caution against complacency. “Declines don’t really erase the dramatic increases we had,” Bernt Nelson, an economist with the Farm Bureau, told CNBC.
Consumers can further stretch their budgets by strategically choosing between store-brand and name-brand items. Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute estimates that opting entirely for store brands could save up to $17 on a 10-person meal. However, this year, some name-brand items, such as canned cranberries, are surprisingly cheaper than their store-brand alternatives. “When shopping this year, it really comes back to doing a little bit of research,” advised Robin Wenzel of Wells Fargo.
Despite the ongoing economic uncertainty, the spirit of Thanksgiving remains strong. Indiana turkey farmer Greg Gunthorp noted an increase in menu variety, with consumers adding brisket and ham to their traditional spreads. “We’ve had those outlier years when there just aren’t enough turkeys to go around. This is definitely not one of those years,” Gunthorp told Reuters. The overall picture suggests a Thanksgiving with a lighter financial burden for many, but the lingering effects of inflation remind us that smart shopping and mindful choices are key to navigating this holiday season.
