Imagine a future where historians compile the complete history of humankind, dividing it into two volumes. The first, spanning millennia, would chronicle humanity’s rise from primitive ape-like beings to the pinnacle of intelligence, detailing our inventions from stone tools to nuclear weapons and the internet. The second volume, however, would tell a different story – one where humans faced a form of intelligence exceeding their own. This volume, intriguingly, might be on the verge of being written.
The advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI), systems with the capacity to match and surpass human cognitive abilities, is a topic of much debate. While some predict AGI is mere years away, others place it a decade or two in the future. The potential outcomes range from a utopia of leisure to a dystopian scenario where humanity is extinguished by its own creations.
The recent emergence of ChatGPT, a powerful language model, exemplifies the rapid advancement of AI. While its intelligence is currently debated, it prompts comparisons to the fictional newts of Karel Capek’s 1936 novel, “War with the Newts.” Capek’s satirical tale, a chillingly prophetic allegory, follows the discovery of a breed of intelligent sea creatures in Indonesia. Initially amused by the newts’ playful interactions, the crew of a Dutch ship quickly realizes the creatures’ remarkable learning abilities.
The story echoes our fascination with AI’s capabilities today. Just as we were enthralled by AI-generated images of dogs playing poker in the style of Caravaggio, Capek’s characters marvel at the newts’ ability to extract pearls. This sparks an entrepreneurial opportunity, and soon the newts are equipped with knives for greater pearl production. This seemingly innocuous act sets off a chain reaction with unforeseen consequences.
The knives give the newts an edge against predatory sharks, leading to a population boom. As the newts multiply, their intelligence evolves at an alarming rate, mirroring the exponential growth of AI.
A fictional “Salamander Syndicate,” reminiscent of today’s Big Tech companies, emerges, exploiting the newts’ cheap labor for various tasks, from farming to construction. The Panama Canal is expanded with minimal human effort, and concerns about the rapid pace of change are dismissed as Luddite fears.
The narrative parallels the concerns surrounding AI today. The International Labour Organisation’s warning about the impact of newts on jobs echoes the IMF’s prediction that 40% of jobs could be affected by AI. Capek’s portrayal of newts as a cheap labor force mirrors the debates surrounding automation and its potential economic consequences.
The story also highlights ethical concerns. The newts’ voracious appetite for food resources parallels the criticisms of AI models’ energy consumption. The question of liability for newt actions mirrors the recent case where a court ruled that Air Canada had to honor a discount offered by an AI-powered chatbot that had made a mistake.
Capek’s newts evolve at a rapid pace, surpassing their human creators. The humans, preoccupied with their own interests, fail to fully understand the newts, just as we grapple with the complex workings of AI today. The parallels extend to the social and political spheres as well. The Germans in the novel believe their newts are superior to others, mirroring the biases and prejudices that can be embedded in AI systems.
The newts’ growing power and influence, coupled with humans’ insatiable greed, leads to a perilous situation. This mirrors our current reliance on AI for tasks like cybersecurity and defense, raising concerns about the potential for malicious use of advanced technologies.
Capek’s novel concludes with the newts taking control. The humans, unable to comprehend or manage the newts’ evolution, find themselves at the mercy of their own creation.
The parallels between “War with the Newts” and our AI present are uncanny. Capek’s story serves as a cautionary tale, reminding us of the need to approach the development and deployment of AI with careful consideration of its potential impacts on society, the environment, and the very nature of our existence.
As we navigate the exciting yet uncertain waters of the AI era, we must heed the lessons learned from Capek’s fictional newts, recognizing the potential for both immense progress and unforeseen consequences.
While Capek’s newts remain fictional, their story provides a valuable lens through which to examine our relationship with AI, urging us to proceed with both curiosity and caution, lest we become victims of our own creation.
