The Arctic and Antarctic, two polar opposites in location and nature, share a common threat: global warming. While the Arctic is an ocean surrounded by continents and supports indigenous communities, the Antarctic is a continent surrounded by an ocean, inhabited only by transients. Historically, the Arctic has been a focal point of nuclear tensions, while the Antarctic has been governed by a unique regime of peaceful scientific collaboration. These two regions are home to iconic wildlife, with polar bears in the north and penguins in the south. However, it is the Antarctic that faces a greatly underappreciated threat from climate change.
One reason for this lack of attention is Antarctica’s remoteness. The largest base, America’s McMurdo, is nearly 4,000km from the nearest city. Visits are primarily limited to scientists, adventurers, and support staff. Additionally, Antarctica has long been perceived as relatively stable, with its ice sheets containing enough water to raise sea levels by 60 metres, but a collapse thought to take centuries.
However, recent research has challenged this complacency. Antarctica’s ice sheets are showing alarming signs of a significant thaw, with extreme events like the disappearance of an area of sea ice the size of Greenland during last year’s austral winter being a symptom of a quickening instability. Glaciologists are now talking about a “regime shift” as parts of the enormous ice sheets that cover 98% of the continent slide towards the seas.
The melting of Antarctica has a profound impact on global sea levels. Water shifting from Antarctica’s continental bedrock into the Southern Ocean has increased its contribution to global sea-level rise from 4% to 12% in just 20 years, and this trend is expected to continue unabated. Furthermore, as Antarctica melts, the gravitational attraction its shrinking ice exerts on the neighboring seas weakens, causing sea levels elsewhere to rise even faster. This effect will disproportionately affect Australia, Oceania, and North America.
Melting ice sheets not only raise sea levels but also bring shifts in atmospheric circulation that reach the equator and beyond, changing weather in the Sahel and Amazonia. Moreover, the Southern Ocean is one of the world’s largest carbon sinks, absorbing a significant portion of the carbon dioxide emitted annually. If it warms, it will absorb less, an effect that may be aggravated by the release of trillions of tonnes of fresh water from the melting ice sheets, altering ocean currents.
Despite the gravity of these threats, some countries are cutting their budgets for Antarctic research. This is counterproductive, as the measurement and modeling of ice sheets lag behind the study of the atmosphere and ocean currents. To address the worsening situation, it is crucial to increase research efforts and enhance cooperation among the 56 countries that are signatories to the Antarctic treaty.
While it may not be possible to protect the Antarctic environment in its entirety, it is imperative to improve our understanding of the changes occurring on this vast and remote continent and their implications for the rest of the world. The Antarctic treaty’s environmental protocol commits its signatories to this duty. By working together, we can mitigate the effects of climate change and safeguard the future of our planet.
