A fast-moving tropical system in the central Atlantic Ocean is poised to intensify into Tropical Storm Ernesto, raising concerns about potential travel disruptions and significant flooding across the Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The storm is projected to strengthen into a major hurricane later this week, potentially reaching Category 3 status.
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are closely monitoring the tropical wave currently located about 435 miles east of Antigua, moving west at a rapid pace of 26 mph. The system, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, is anticipated to organize and develop into Tropical Storm Ernesto by late Monday night or early Tuesday as it approaches the Leeward Islands.
Tropical storm warnings have been issued for a wide range of Caribbean islands, including St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Guadeloupe, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Sint Maarten, the U.S. Virgin Islands, British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra. The NHC has warned of heavy rainfall, potentially causing dangerous flash flooding and mudslides in these areas, particularly in the Leeward Islands from Monday night into Wednesday, and in Puerto Rico from late Tuesday into Thursday.
Beyond the immediate threats of flooding and mudslides, the approaching storm is likely to disrupt travel across the Caribbean. Air travel is expected to be particularly affected, with potential flight delays and cancellations as the storm moves closer. Travelers are advised to check with airlines and local authorities for the latest updates on flight statuses and airport operations.
The storm’s track, while not yet fully determined, suggests it will curve to the northwest after crossing the Lesser Antilles, potentially passing near or over Puerto Rico on Wednesday. As it moves over the warm waters of the Caribbean and encounters favorable atmospheric conditions, the system is likely to intensify further. The NHC predicts the storm will achieve hurricane strength north of Puerto Rico by Thursday, with sustained winds of at least 74 mph. Continued strengthening is expected as the storm moves northward over open Atlantic waters, potentially reaching winds of around 110 mph by Saturday, which could make it a high-end Category 2 or low-end Category 3 hurricane.
While the storm is forecast to remain well offshore from the mainland United States, its path could bring it close to Bermuda over the weekend, prompting additional travel advisories in the region. Travelers in the Caribbean and those planning trips to the region should remain vigilant and prepare for possible disruptions. With the storm’s potential to become a major hurricane, it’s crucial to stay informed about its progress and heed any warnings or advisories issued by local authorities.
