Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has successfully navigated a second vote of no confidence, dodging another attempt by his Conservative rival to unseat his government and trigger early elections. The 207 to 121 vote, largely mirroring the outcome of last week’s failed attempt, saw two smaller factions in parliament siding with Trudeau’s minority government. The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, accused the government of failing to address a housing crisis, rising crime, and the escalating cost of living, accusing them of being “the most centralizing government in Canadian history.”
Poilievre, who holds a commanding 20-point lead in public opinion polls, has been eager to go to the polls since the New Democratic Party (NDP) ended their coalition agreement with the Liberals last month, leaving Trudeau’s administration vulnerable. Despite this advantage, the NDP and other opposition parties, whose support is crucial to topple the Liberals, have resisted Poilievre’s right-wing agenda. Undeterred, Poilievre has vowed to keep trying.
Under Canada’s Westminster parliamentary system, a ruling party must maintain the confidence of the House of Commons, necessitating the support of a majority of members. The Liberals currently hold 153 seats, compared to the Conservatives’ 119, the Bloc Quebecois’ 33, and the NDP’s 25. Trudeau, who swept to power in 2015, has navigated two previous votes of no confidence in 2019 and 2021. However, his popularity has declined significantly in recent months, marked by by-election losses in two of his party’s strongholds.
The deal with the NDP, intended to keep the Liberals in power until late 2025, was disrupted when the NDP, witnessing a decline in its own popularity due to its alignment with the Liberals, exited the pact early. While most analysts have told AFP they do not anticipate an election before spring 2025, they acknowledge the situation is fluid. The Liberals, weakened by the political turmoil, face the challenge of continuing to govern in a fractured parliament.
