Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is navigating a treacherous political landscape, facing a perfect storm of domestic and international challenges. A sharp decline in his popularity, fueled by rising inflation, unaffordable housing, and increasing unemployment, has left his leadership under intense scrutiny. Adding to his woes is growing internal dissent within his own Liberal Party, with several MPs calling for his resignation, fearing an electoral wipeout under his leadership. Recent by-election losses in traditionally Liberal strongholds like Montreal and Toronto have further solidified these concerns.
However, it’s the escalating diplomatic crisis with India that has truly thrust Trudeau into the international spotlight. His government has accused Indian diplomats of potential involvement in the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a vocal advocate of the Khalistan movement, in June 2023. This accusation, while denied vehemently by India, has triggered a diplomatic standoff, with India withdrawing over 40 Canadian diplomats and temporarily suspending visa services in Canada.
The controversy has sparked heated debate about Trudeau’s motives. Critics argue that the Nijjar probe is a political maneuver to appease the Sikh community in Canada, a key electoral demographic, and to deflect from his sinking popularity. This accusation is further fueled by Trudeau’s history of engaging in Sikh politics for political gain, including a controversial trip to India in 2018 where a convicted Sikh extremist was invited to a state dinner.
The current crisis echoes past tensions between India and Canada over Sikh separatism. In the 1980s, Trudeau’s father, Pierre Trudeau, faced similar criticism for mishandling ties with India, refusing to extradite Talwinder Singh Parmar, a Khalistani extremist and the alleged mastermind of the 1985 Air India bombing. This historical context casts a long shadow on the current situation, raising questions about whether the Trudeau family has a history of failing to address Sikh extremism effectively.
With federal elections looming in October 2024, Trudeau’s ability to navigate this complex political landscape and salvage his political fortunes is increasingly in question. The Nijjar probe and its fallout with India are likely to be a central focus of the upcoming elections, potentially shaping the outcome of the race for the Prime Minister’s office. As the situation unfolds, it remains to be seen whether Trudeau can regain his footing and emerge from this crisis with his political career intact.