The incoming Trump administration is reportedly considering a significant geopolitical shift: recognizing Somaliland, the self-governing region that declared independence from Somalia in 1991. This move, while potentially advantageous for the US in terms of strategic positioning, carries significant risks and complexities for the Horn of Africa and US-Africa relations.
Following a devastating civil war, Somaliland’s northern region, bordering the Gulf of Aden, seceded from Somalia. Since then, it has established its own independent government, currency, and institutions. Despite this de facto independence, Somaliland lacks international recognition, a status that the Trump administration may be poised to alter, according to reports from Semafor. This potential recognition is fueled by Somaliland’s strategic location, its growing importance in regional trade and security, and its potential as a counterweight to China’s expanding influence in the region.
Several countries have already begun increasing engagement with Somaliland, including Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates, which have signed port deals. These agreements highlight the region’s growing economic and geopolitical significance. For the US, recognizing Somaliland could provide access to crucial strategic ports and military facilities, bolstering its presence in a region of significant geopolitical competition.
However, the potential ramifications are substantial. Such a move could significantly destabilize the Horn of Africa, creating tensions with Somalia and potentially impacting relationships with other regional actors such as Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Eritrea. The African Union, which has consistently opposed Somaliland’s secession, could also see its relationship with the United States strained in the short term.
Analysts offer differing perspectives. Joshua Meservey of the Hudson Institute argues that Somaliland’s successful self-governance warrants recognition. He contends that Somaliland’s demonstrated capacity to govern itself makes a return to Somalia implausible. However, he acknowledges that Somalia’s lack of support for US interests could have played a role in the consideration of recognition. This perspective aligns with the transactional nature of the Trump administration’s foreign policy.
Yinka Adegoke, observing from within Somaliland, points to the country’s strategic military and shipping importance, along with the desire to counter China’s influence in the region, as key drivers behind the potential US recognition. Conversely, there are concerns that US recognition could trigger a cascade of secessionist movements across Africa, further destabilizing the continent.
The strategic implications extend beyond military and economic interests. Somaliland’s recent deal with Ethiopia to lease coastline and access to the port of Berbera for 50 years – in exchange for recognition and partial ownership in Ethiopian Airlines – demonstrates the region’s growing leverage in regional dynamics. This deal, reported by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), underscores the high stakes involved in any decision regarding Somaliland’s international recognition and its implications for the US and the broader African continent.
