A new poll reveals a tight race in Virginia, with former President Trump leading President Biden by a mere three percentage points. This finding marks a significant shift from the 2020 election, where Biden secured a commanding 10-point victory in the Old Dominion State. Virginia has consistently voted for Democrats in every presidential election since Barack Obama’s first campaign in 2008, making this potential swing state a crucial factor in the 2024 election.
The Virginia Commonwealth University-Wilder School poll, reported by the Washington Post, indicates a decline in support for Biden, dropping from 42% in January to 36% in the recent poll. While Trump’s support remained steady at 39%, the poll suggests a more significant drop in support for the incumbent president rather than a substantial surge for Trump. Notably, the poll was conducted between June 24 and July 3, encompassing a period following Biden’s widely criticized debate performance on June 27.
The poll’s results bode well for the Trump campaign, fueling concerns within the Biden camp, which has faced calls for the president to withdraw from the race. Biden’s job approval rating also stands at a dismal 36%, with 58% disapproving of his performance. The rising cost of living emerged as the top issue for Virginia voters, followed by women’s reproductive rights and immigration.
Biden’s dwindling support extends to the Black community, with only 46% saying they would vote for him, a significant drop from 67% in the last VCU-Wilder poll. Conversely, 13.7% of Black voters indicated they would support Trump. The poll, consisting of telephone interviews with 809 Virginia adults aged 18 and older, has a 4.8-point margin of error.
While Virginia hasn’t traditionally been considered a battleground state, recent polling suggests a more competitive race than anticipated. A Fox News poll published in June showed Trump and Biden tied at 48% support each, highlighting the close contest in the Old Dominion State. However, a New York Times-Siena College poll conducted between July 9-12 revealed a slightly different picture, with Biden edging out Trump by three percentage points (48% to 45%) among likely voters.
Republican Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who captured the governor’s office in 2021 with Trump’s backing, believes Virginia is firmly in play for the former president. Youngkin, who attributed his victory to the effectiveness of commonsense conservative policies, believes Virginia could deliver a win for Trump in November. He echoed these sentiments in an interview with Fox News contributor Guy Benson in May, asserting that Virginia is in play and could swing in Trump’s favor.
Despite Trump’s continued support in Virginia, the VCU-Wilder poll reveals a decline in approval ratings for Youngkin, dropping from 54% in January to 50% in the recent poll. Meanwhile, his disapproval rating climbed from 36% to 39%. The poll also found that incumbent Sen. Tim Kaine, a Democrat, holds a lead over Republican challenger Hung Cao, with 49% and 38% support, respectively.
In a significant development, 53% of Virginia voters indicated that they were less likely to vote for Trump due to his conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records in New York. On the other hand, 31% said the convictions made them more likely to support him. Notably, 45% of independents stated that the convictions made them less likely to support Trump, while 25% expressed the opposite sentiment.
