The 2024 presidential race is shaping up to be a nail-biter, with the latest polls painting a picture of a tight contest between incumbent Donald Trump and challenger Kamala Harris. Recent surveys have revealed a fluctuating lead, with each candidate taking the edge in different polls. This close race underscores the deep political divide in the country and the uncertainty surrounding the election outcome.
In a recent ABC/Ipsos poll, Harris held a four-point lead over Trump. However, a CBS/YouGov survey showed a narrower margin, with Harris leading by just one point. Meanwhile, an Emerson College Polling survey presented a dead heat, with both candidates tied at 49%. This Emerson survey, conducted through telephone calls with around 1,000 likely voters, also shed light on voters’ top concerns. The economy emerged as the primary concern for 45% of respondents, followed by immigration and threats to democracy, each garnering 14% of responses. Other issues like access to abortion, healthcare, and crime received lower percentages, with 7%, 6%, and 4% respectively.
The picture remains complex. A Times/Siena poll showed Trump and Harris deadlocked at 48%, indicating a dip in support for Harris since The Times’ previous poll in early October. The candidates are also evenly matched in a CNN/SSRS poll. However, Trump enjoys a lead in a CNBC survey and a Wall Street Journal registered voter poll. He also maintains a two-point lead over Harris in a HarrisX/Forbes survey.
Despite these positive signs for Trump, recent polls such as a Monmouth University poll and an Economist/YouGov survey show Harris in the lead. The race is so close that, according to the RealClearPolitics aggregation of recent polls, Trump leads Harris by just one-tenth of a percentage point, with Trump at 47.5% and Harris at 47.4%. When considering the electoral vote count, Harris leads in states totaling 226 electoral votes, while Trump leads for 218 electoral votes.
The close race highlights the importance of swing states, where the outcome remains uncertain and could ultimately decide the election. With the electorate seemingly divided and the polls fluctuating, the 2024 presidential election promises to be a closely watched and potentially dramatic race.
