The 2024 US Presidential race is heating up, and the betting odds reflect this. According to data from Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market platform, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are now tied at 49% each, a significant shift from earlier predictions. This neck-and-neck race is evident in the surging trading volume on Polymarket, which has reached $1,182,629,247. Trump and Harris have seen a significant number of trades, indicating strong interest in their chances of winning the election.
The shift in odds follows the September 10th debate, where Vice President Harris initially gained ground. However, Trump has since closed that gap, solidifying his position in the market.
This close contest is further underscored by the substantial investments made by prominent traders on Polymarket. One such trader, known as “Fredi9999,” has heavily invested in Trump’s success, with over $5 million invested across various bets. This includes long positions on Trump winning the election, a Republican winning the state of Pennsylvania, and Trump winning the popular vote.
Conversely, another prominent trader, “markitzero,” has placed over $4 million in bets heavily favoring Kamala Harris. Their positions include substantial shares in Kamala Harris winning the election, Trump not winning, and a Democrat winning North Carolina and Georgia.
This intense trading activity highlights the significant interest in the 2024 election and the unpredictable nature of the race. Polymarket, which is competing with Kalshi (a platform recently approved by the CFTC to resume election betting contracts), provides a fascinating glimpse into the evolving political landscape. With the race tightening, it remains to be seen who will emerge as the eventual winner, but one thing is certain: the 2024 Presidential election is shaping up to be a closely watched and highly contested race.
