In a surprising turn of events, election analyst Harry Enten predicts that Donald Trump could break a two-decade Republican curse by securing the popular vote in the upcoming election. While the popular vote doesn’t directly determine the winner, it holds significant political weight, especially for Trump, who lost the popular vote in both the 2016 and 2020 elections.
Enten’s prediction stems from recent poll results that show Trump and Kamala Harris in a neck-and-neck race for the popular vote nationwide. This close race has sparked discussions about a potential shift in voting patterns. The last time a Republican presidential candidate won the popular vote was in 2004 with George W. Bush, and before that, no Republican had done so since George H.W. Bush in 1988.
Enten also points out that Trump is polling better than past GOP nominees in traditionally Democratic strongholds like California and New York, despite being unlikely to win either state. This suggests a potential shift in voter sentiment towards Trump.
While Enten acknowledges that Trump’s potential popular vote victory doesn’t guarantee an Electoral College win, he presents a scenario where Harris could secure the Electoral College victory while losing the popular vote. He emphasizes that the Great Lakes battleground states are currently too unpredictable to forecast with certainty.
This potential shift in voting patterns could have significant implications for the political landscape. A popular vote victory for Trump would break a 20-year record and could potentially reshape the narrative around his political influence. It also highlights the unpredictable nature of the Electoral College system, where a candidate can win the popular vote but still lose the election. This scenario could potentially play out for Harris, as suggested by Enten.
The upcoming election results will undoubtedly be closely watched, as they could set new precedents and impact future electoral strategies. The close race and the potential for a popular vote victory for Trump after two decades of Republican defeat adds a layer of intrigue to the election.
