In a surprising turn of events, Donald Trump has edged out Vice President Kamala Harris in a recent national poll conducted by RMG Research for the Napolitan Institute. The poll, conducted between August 12 and 14, indicates that 46% of likely voters favor Trump, while 45% support Harris, a difference of just one percentage point. This development is particularly interesting as Harris has seen a rise in popularity following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race on July 21 and his subsequent endorsement of her. Since then, Harris has surpassed Trump in numerous national polls and some swing state polls.
Despite the lead in this particular poll, most recent polling data still places Harris ahead. The current polling average by FiveThirtyEight gives Harris a lead of approximately 2.7 points, while Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin shows Harris leading by 2.8 percent.
The race remains incredibly tight, especially in key swing states. A poll conducted by Emerson College Polling/RealClearPennsylvania shows Trump marginally leading Harris in Pennsylvania by 1 point, 49% to 48%, among likely voters. When undecided voters were pushed to make a choice, Trump’s lead increased to 2 points, 51% to 49%. However, it’s important to note that this lead is within the poll’s 3-point margin of error.
The poll highlights the intense competition for Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes. Both candidates received nearly equal support from their respective parties, with approximately 91% of registered Republicans and Democrats supporting their party’s candidate. Trump, however, had a slight edge among independent voters and a significant lead among voters aged 50 to 69.
Harris, on the other hand, demonstrated strength among young voters and union members, leading 61% to 36% among those under 40, and 57% to 42% among union members. The candidates were evenly matched among voters in their 40s.
The fluctuating poll numbers underscore the volatility and unpredictability of the political landscape. The recent poll results indicate a close race, with both candidates having strong support bases. The impact of Biden’s endorsement of Harris and Trump’s continued influence on his supporters are key factors that could shape the final outcome of the race. The role of the Electoral College system further adds complexity to the election process, making it impossible to predict a clear winner at this stage.
