The betting market is making a bold prediction about the 2024 US presidential election: Donald Trump is favored to win. This prediction, based on over $800 million in wagers on the Polymarket platform, gives Trump a 53% chance of victory over Vice President Kamala Harris, who sits at 46%. This 7-point lead highlights a significant disparity in market confidence as of September 5th.
Further amplifying Trump’s advantage is the state-by-state breakdown. The data suggests Trump is leading in key swing states, including:
* Arizona: Trump 60%, Harris 40%
* Georgia: Trump 58%, Harris 42%
* Pennsylvania: Trump 53%, Harris 47%
* Nevada: Trump 52%, Harris 48%
This trend, which shows Trump consistently ahead since March, contrasts with Harris’s surge in July, which peaked in August before experiencing a slight decline. Notably, President Joe Biden’s chances in this market dropped to 0% in August.
While the betting market leans heavily towards Trump, national polls paint a different picture. FiveThirtyEight’s polling data shows Harris leading with 47% support compared to Trump’s 44%. A recent Emerson College Polling national survey also reveals a tight race, with Harris at 49% support and Trump at 47%. Allan Lichtman, a historian who correctly predicted the outcome of nine out of the last ten US presidential elections, forecasts a Harris victory.
The contrasting predictions highlight the potential for swing states to play a decisive role in the election’s outcome. This division is also prompting the financial world to prepare for potential impacts. The Benzinga Future of Digital Assets event, scheduled for November 19th, will explore the intersection of digital assets and traditional markets, potentially offering insights into how the crypto landscape might evolve post-election.
As the political drama unfolds, it will be fascinating to see how the betting market’s predictions align with the actual election results and what the implications will be for the future of the country.
