The criminal trial against former President Donald Trump is drawing to a close, and political experts are analyzing the potential impact a guilty verdict could have on the 2024 presidential election. Trump is facing nearly three dozen state felony charges related to falsifying business records in connection with payments made during the 2016 election to adult film actress Stormy Daniels. While public opinion polls indicate that a majority of registered voters believe Trump violated campaign finance laws, there is a wide partisan divide in views on the fairness of his trial.
According to a recent Fox News national poll, nearly half of registered voters questioned said Trump had done something illegal when it comes to violations of campaign finance laws, with another quarter saying he had done something unethical. Only 27% said the former president had done nothing seriously wrong. However, that number jumped to 54% among Trump supporters. The same survey indicated that voters were roughly divided on whether Trump’s legal treatment was fair (51%) or unfair (47%).
Two recent national polls suggest that a guilty verdict may not significantly alter the current state of play in the presidential showdown. Sixty-two percent of registered voters questioned in a Quinnipiac University survey said a guilty verdict would make no difference to their vote for president. Meanwhile, eight out of 10 Trump supporters surveyed in an ABC News/Ipsos national poll said they’d still back the presumptive GOP presidential nominee if he was found guilty in court.
Political analysts have compared the potential impact of a guilty verdict to the infamous video that briefly damaged Trump’s chances of winning the 2016 presidential election. They suggest that there might be a temporary dip in Trump’s poll numbers, but by November, it could seem forgivable to his supporters. They also emphasize that attitudes towards both President Biden and former President Trump are deeply entrenched, and a guilty verdict in the hush money trial is unlikely to significantly affect the presidential race.
However, some analysts believe that the history-making trial will have an impact. They argue that regardless of the verdict, the trial has not helped Trump and that a not-guilty verdict could allow him to claim vindication. But even then, it is difficult to imagine it becoming a net positive for him.
The outcome of Trump’s criminal trial remains uncertain, and its impact on the 2024 presidential election is difficult to predict. However, the trial has undoubtedly put a spotlight on Trump’s actions and has contributed to the ongoing debate about his fitness for office.
