The 2024 US Presidential election is heating up, and the battle lines are being drawn not just on the campaign trail but also on prediction markets like Polymarket. This platform allows users to buy and sell shares on the outcome of events, and the recent distribution of shares for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris reveals a fascinating contrast in their economic philosophies.
According to data from Primo Data and Polymarketanalytics, the ownership concentration of shares on Polymarket paints a picture of two distinct supporter profiles. For Trump, the top five backers hold a staggering 50% of the total 162 million shares, representing an estimated $81 million in payouts should he win. The largest of these accounts, nicknamed “Le Giga Whale,” holds nearly a third of these shares alone, highlighting a heavily concentrated backing. This concentration reflects Trump’s strong appeal to high-net-worth investors and large stakeholders, suggesting a focus on traditional economic models and policies that favor big business and wealth accumulation.
In stark contrast, Kamala Harris’s “Yes” shares tell a different story. The top five holders account for only 18% of shares, with no individual holding exceeding 5%. This broad ownership reflects a decentralized base, mirroring her policy stance focused on appealing to a broader cross-section of the population, potentially suggesting a preference for more inclusive economic policies.
The divide becomes even more apparent when considering the popular vote on Polymarket. Trump’s top backers, once again led by “Monsieur Whale,” command 82% of “Yes” shares, setting the stage for a potential $36 million payout if he secures the popular vote. However, Kamala’s top five backers hold only 25% of the total shares for the popular vote. Notably, “therealbatman,” Polymarket’s biggest all-time loser, has taken the top spot among those betting on Kamala for the popular vote, suggesting a potential underdog narrative and a willingness to bet on a more progressive candidate.
As the election approaches, market watchers will be keenly interested in the Benzinga Future of Digital Assets event on November 19th, where industry experts will discuss the evolving landscape of digital assets and prediction markets in politics. The insights gained from this event could offer valuable clues about the future of political forecasting and the potential impact of prediction markets on the outcome of elections.
