Black voters have traditionally been a strong base for the Democratic Party, and evangelicals have been similarly vital to the GOP. However, recent polls suggest that both groups may be less dependable for their respective parties.
Black voter support for President Joe Biden may have declined, but the Democrats remain in a defensive posture with that electorate.
Evangelicals, too, appear to be less monolithic in their views, with churchgoing decreasing in America and factions developing within the bloc. Former President Trump’s stance on abortion has drawn criticism from anti-abortion groups, while his statements on state regulation of the issue have confused many evangelicals.
Despite this, Trump’s campaign may not suffer significantly from erosion of evangelical support, as he has gained support from a growing group of Republicans who are largely disinterested in religion. This group, labeled “Nones” by political scientist Ryan Burge, has grown from 5% to nearly 30% of the population in the past half-century.
While the number of churchgoing Republicans has declined, the MAGA crowd has shown its ability to succeed without strong evangelical support. This suggests that while Black voters and evangelicals may be less reliable for their traditional parties, Trump’s chances of success in 2024 may rest on his appeal to non-religious Republicans.
It is important to note that the polls cited in this article are only a snapshot of current voter sentiment and may not accurately predict the outcome of future elections. The political landscape is constantly evolving, and it is impossible to say with certainty how these trends will play out in the long term.
