Donald Trump’s return to the world of diplomacy has sent ripples across the globe, with South Asia watching intently. In his first day back on the diplomatic front, Trump made a clear statement: his priorities lie beyond the traditional Western allies. Instead of first reaching out to leaders in Canada, the UK, France, and Germany—a pattern followed by his successor Joe Biden in 2020—Trump chose to prioritize conversations with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). This unconventional choice, highlighting a potential shift in America’s foreign policy focus, signals a renewed interest in strengthening ties with nations beyond the Western sphere.
Trump’s immediate outreach to India and Saudi Arabia indicates his intent to prioritize strategic partnerships in Asia, potentially reshaping America’s foreign policy landscape. His conversation with Modi was marked by praise for India, calling it a “magnificent country” and Modi a “magnificent man.” Trump expressed his desire to work together for “global peace”, highlighting his vision of a robust India-US alliance. While this rhetoric echoes Trump’s past statements, it should be examined critically, considering his history of grand gestures that don’t always translate into substantive policy shifts.
Trump’s return to the White House could signal a stark shift in US-Pakistan relations. During his previous term, he took a hard line against Pakistan, publicly accusing it of harboring terrorist groups, including the Taliban. Trump’s 2018 decision to cut off significant military aid to Pakistan, citing its failure to demonstrate a commitment to combating terrorism, sparked outrage in Pakistan, where effigies of Trump were burned in protest. This move also created friction between the two nations. The situation has evolved under President Biden, with the resumption of some military assistance to Pakistan and a warming of ties between the two countries. However, Trump’s comeback could disrupt this progress, as he is unlikely to overlook what he perceives as Pakistan’s “double game” on terrorism.
Trump’s attention has also turned toward Bangladesh, where he recently criticized the interim regime for its handling of minority rights, calling out the “chaos” and the attacks on Hindus and other minorities. This sharply contrasts with Biden’s approach, as the current administration has cultivated a warm relationship with prominent Bangladeshi figures, including Nobel laureate and microfinance pioneer Mohammed Yunus. Yunus, a favorite of US Democrats, was honored by former President Barack Obama and has close ties with the Clinton family, reflecting a friendly rapport between the current US administration and Dhaka. Under Trump, however, this relationship could face challenges. Yunus has already reached out to congratulate Trump on his return, expressing a desire for stronger ties. Yet the change in administration may bring uncertainty, particularly as Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh’s embattled former prime minister, recently issued a congratulatory note to Trump, despite her precarious political standing.
Even the Taliban, who benefited from Trump’s negotiation of the historic US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2020, are cautiously optimistic about his return, suggesting they expect “realistic” policies moving forward. Trump’s 2020 deal with the Taliban garnered global attention and underscored his willingness to negotiate with unconventional leaders. His approach to diplomacy, even with adversaries, demonstrates an openness to dialogue, a pattern also seen in his meetings with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
Beyond the primary players in South Asia, Trump’s previous administration exhibited limited engagement with countries like Sri Lanka, Nepal, and the Maldives. Biden, by contrast, had been investing diplomatic capital in these nations, hosting key figures like the Maldivian foreign minister to strengthen bilateral ties. However, it remains uncertain if Trump will continue such engagements. Historically, his administration’s South Asia focus was largely limited to India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan.
Trump’s return to the global diplomatic arena promises a presidency that will likely be as unfiltered and unpredictable as the last. His past approach, marked by off-the-cuff comments and unconventional diplomatic moves—like his offers to mediate the Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan, and his jabs at India’s development efforts in Afghanistan—may shape his approach to South Asia in unexpected ways. The “Trumpisms” factor, his penchant for few filters and fewer red lines, will likely influence his engagement with South Asian nations, leading to potentially surprising outcomes. The stage is set for a new chapter in South Asian diplomacy, and the world is watching to see how Trump’s return will rewrite the script.