The victory of President-elect Donald Trump has sent shockwaves through Tehran, triggering a wave of anxieties within the Iranian regime. The man they had been trying to assassinate for years is back, and with him, the possibility of a renewed era of maximum pressure policies and an unpredictable approach to foreign affairs. The implications for Iran are profound, potentially leading to increased economic turmoil, a resurgence of tensions over its nuclear program, and a more aggressive stance against its regional allies.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), its military force, has openly threatened Trump, posting a video on its Telegram channel featuring a bloodied Trump and the chilling message, “We will finish the job.” This serves as a stark reminder of Iran’s longstanding vow for revenge following the 2019 assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, a top Iranian commander, authorized by Trump.
Experts believe that Trump’s return will have a chilling effect on Iran’s economy, already reeling from the impact of sanctions. “The regime knows it can ill afford more exogenous economic shocks,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). “Even the return of maximum pressure alone to the Islamic Republic is going to cause major, major economic problems.” This sentiment was echoed by the plummeting Iranian rial, which hit an all-time low following Trump’s victory, signaling the deep-seated anxieties within the regime.
Trump’s unwavering support for Israel is another source of concern for Iran. The former president’s previous administration was known for its aggressive stance against Iran and its close alliance with Israel, a key adversary in the region. The prospect of a renewed confrontation between Iran and Israel, which has already seen a recent escalation in tensions, looms large, particularly with Iran facing pressure from its allies like Hezbollah in Lebanon.
While Trump’s potential approach towards Iran remains uncertain, the prospect of a return to maximum pressure policies and a less predictable approach to foreign affairs has triggered a sense of dread within the Iranian regime. The implications for the region are significant, with the potential for heightened tensions and a renewed focus on Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Whether Trump will adopt a more confrontational approach to Iran’s nuclear program remains to be seen, but the mere possibility of it has sparked a fresh wave of concern and a sense of foreboding in the Middle East.
