The race for governor in New Hampshire is shaping up to be a nail-biter, with recent polls showing a close contest between Democratic nominee Joyce Craig and Republican nominee Kelly Ayotte. While Ayotte benefits from significant name recognition thanks to her time as a senator and attorney general, her campaign is facing an unexpected obstacle: the shadow of former President Donald Trump.
Despite Ayotte’s own popularity, some political analysts believe Trump’s declining standing in New Hampshire could be weighing down her campaign. A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll revealed that Trump trails Vice President Kamala Harris by 11 points in the state, while another poll from the Saint Anselm College Survey Center shows Harris with a slight lead. This suggests that Trump’s presence at the top of the ticket might be hurting down-ballot Republicans, including Ayotte.
“Kelly’s very popular, but I do think Trump’s a burden,” said Tom Rath, a long-time GOP consultant in New Hampshire. He argues that if it were a straight gubernatorial race without the presidential election, Ayotte would likely have a clear lead.
Ayotte’s campaign is further hampered by a lack of support from the Trump campaign itself. A New Hampshire-based Republican strategist, speaking anonymously, pointed out that “Trump is definitely an anchor on Kelly and her campaign right now,” and that “there’s not a lot of evidence of activity in New Hampshire by the Trump campaign.” The strategist added that Ayotte is “the flagship,” meaning she is the main target for attacks from both sides.
The situation is compounded by the lack of resources from the Republican National Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee in New Hampshire. “Kelly’s out fighting this thing all by herself,” said another anonymous Republican consultant. “That’s not a good place to be. You need other people drawing fire.” This consultant believes Trump’s lack of focus on New Hampshire, coupled with his low poll numbers and lack of enthusiasm, is hurting the entire Republican ticket.
Despite these challenges, Ayotte is pressing on. She has been endorsed by outgoing Republican Gov. Chris Sununu and vows to continue his agenda if elected. Ayotte’s campaign faces an uphill battle as it navigates the complexities of a close race, a potentially unpopular top-of-the-ticket candidate, and a barrage of negative advertisements from national Democratic groups. Only time will tell whether Ayotte can overcome these hurdles and secure victory in this crucial New Hampshire election.
