A new poll revealing former President Donald Trump trailing President Joe Biden by only single digits in the reliably blue state of New York has triggered alarm bells for longtime Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf. This narrow gap, according to Sheinkopf, points to a widespread dissatisfaction among voters.
“What it tells you is that people are generally dissatisfied,” Sheinkopf stated in an interview with Fox News Digital. “We’re now under five months away from the election. They’re not happy about taxes. They’re not happy about crime. They’re not happy about the state of disorder. And generally, when there is disorder, the out party tends to benefit, whether it be Republicans or Democrats.”
The Siena College poll, showing an eight-percentage-point spread between Biden and Trump in New York, with Biden leading at 47% and Trump at 39%, suggests that a significant number of voters harbor dislike for both candidates.
Sheinkopf, a seasoned political strategist with over 700 campaigns under his belt, emphasizes the current state of affairs as the primary concern for voters. “People are not worried about the former president’s convictions,” he said, referring to Trump’s recent conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in New York court. “What they’re worried about is the present set of circumstances. They’re not happy about Trump. Frankly, if you look at the ‘hating them both’ kind of grouping, which appears in polls all the time, they’re not happy about Biden. They don’t know what to do, so they’re not making a decision. That’s why they’re locked in the center in so many places, and they’re locked in close numbers when they shouldn’t be in states that Biden should be winning handily.”
This close race in New York, a state Biden won by a landslide in 2020 (23 points), signifies a potential historic shift in favor of the Republican candidate and raises significant red flags for Biden’s campaign.
The Siena College poll highlights a gender gap favoring Biden among women (51%-33%) and Trump among men (46%-42%). While Biden maintains strong support among Democrats (75%), Trump enjoys similar support among Republicans (85%) and leads Biden among independents (45%-28%). Despite Biden’s strong lead among non-White voters, Trump has managed to secure a surprising 29% of the Black vote and 26% of the Latino vote.
The poll further reveals Biden’s approval rating at a low 45% approve to 53% disapprove, with his favorability rating also underwater at 42% favorable to 53% unfavorable – his lowest recorded numbers by Siena College. While these figures are unfavorable for Biden, they are even worse for Trump, who stands at 37% favorable and 59% unfavorable.
This unexpected closeness between the incumbent Democrat and the Republican challenger echoes the surprisingly strong performance of New York Republicans in the 2022 gubernatorial election, where Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul defeated former GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin by a narrow margin of 6.4 percentage points – the closest margin since 1994.
Zeldin, who ran against Hochul, confirms that the Siena College poll aligns with other recent polls showing a downward trend for Biden in New York. An Emerson College/The Hill/PIX11 poll conducted last month showed Biden with a mere seven-percentage-point lead over Trump (48%-41%).
Zeldin highlights the significance of this close race in New York, stating, “If New York is polling this close, that bodes well for polling in other states that have a much closer party registration between Republicans and Democrats.”
Zeldin points to key issues, including immigration and the economy, which have shifted towards a more conservative stance among New Yorkers since his gubernatorial campaign.
He argues that the border crisis, a top three concern for many New Yorkers, has now become their top priority. He cites the declining approval ratings of New York City Mayor Eric Adams, Gov. Kathy Hochul, and President Biden as favorable factors for the Trump campaign, suggesting a shift away from the Democratic brand and its elected officials.
While the prospect of New York becoming a battleground state for Trump might seem improbable, the presumptive Republican nominee insists he will win the state. Sheinkopf, however, remains skeptical.
“Trump has to somehow convince people that he’s not reckless. And Biden has to somehow convince people that he steered the ship well, that the economy isn’t as bad as people might think. In fact, it’s really not. Inflation is down, jobs are up, but people feel insecure,” Sheinkopf says.
Both Biden and Trump will have the opportunity to present their respective cases at the CNN Presidential Debate in Atlanta on Thursday. Sheinkopf believes that for Biden to perform well, he needs to articulate his message clearly and appear strong.
“Every word that he says will be parsed. He is the President of the United States, the most powerful man on the planet, versus Trump, who was the most powerful man on the planet, who somehow continues to function, raising lots of money and being credible even though he’s a convicted felon. “We’ve never had anything like this before. [If] the president can’t show strength, it won’t matter whether Trump’s been a convicted felon or not. That is what’s so extraordinary.”
This poll serves as a powerful reminder of the unpredictable nature of the 2024 presidential race. It highlights the deep dissatisfaction and uncertainty amongst voters, potentially setting the stage for a close and competitive election. The upcoming debate provides an opportunity for both candidates to address these concerns and attempt to sway undecided voters. Only time will tell how these developments will ultimately shape the political landscape.
