While Donald Trump may have lost Pennsylvania to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election, the 2022 midterm elections revealed an unexpected shift in the state’s political landscape. Despite the overall victory for Democrats in Pennsylvania, Trump’s influence was felt in several key counties, particularly those with large Hispanic populations and traditionally blue bastions.
One of the most notable changes was in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania’s largest city, which has historically leaned heavily Democratic. While Vice President Kamala Harris still won Philadelphia by a comfortable margin, Trump saw a significant increase in his support, gaining five points compared to his 2020 performance. This translated to a considerable number of voters, even considering Philadelphia’s large population. This surge in support for Trump in Philadelphia may have implications beyond the presidency. Local reports indicate that Republicans are on the cusp of securing a state Senate seat in the city, a rare occurrence.
Trump’s gains in Pennsylvania extended beyond Philadelphia. He saw substantial increases in support in several other counties, including those traditionally considered majority Democrat. In Monroe County, a suburbanizing area attracting residents from New York City suburbs, Trump’s margin increased by a staggering 7.5 points. Similarly, Trump made significant gains in Luzerne County, home to Wilkes-Barre, where he increased his margin by 5.7 points compared to 2020.
Analysts believe that Trump’s increased appeal among Hispanic voters may have contributed to these gains. His rallies in Allentown, Pennsylvania’s third-largest city, which has a sizable Latino population, might have played a significant role in boosting his support in Lehigh County and surrounding areas.
In addition to gains in urban areas, Trump also saw success in more rural counties. He won Pike County, located in the state’s northeastern corner, and even managed a narrow victory in Bucks County, traditionally a swing county in the Philadelphia suburbs. This is noteworthy because no Republican presidential candidate has won Bucks County since George W. Bush in 2004.
However, the Republican victories in Pennsylvania weren’t limited to Trump’s coattails. While Harris ultimately won Centre County, home to Penn State University, Republicans made significant gains there, with Trump exceeding his 2020 performance by three points.
While Trump’s gains in Pennsylvania are undeniable, it’s important to acknowledge that not all counties saw a Republican surge. Democrats saw some marginal improvements in certain mid-state counties, particularly in the hard-fought contest between Rep. Scott Perry and Democratic news anchor Janelle Stelson.
The 2022 midterm elections in Pennsylvania demonstrated a shift in the state’s political landscape. While Democrats still hold the majority in several key areas, Trump’s influence was felt in many counties, especially those with growing Hispanic populations. This shift in voter preferences could have significant implications for future elections in Pennsylvania and the nation as a whole.
