Two years have passed since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine on February 24th, 2022. Despite setbacks, Russia has made some progress on the battlefield, capturing the small town of Avdiivka in February 2023. However, Putin’s determination to continue the war remains unwavering, as evidenced by Russia’s increased production of ammunition and its relentless assault on Ukraine’s infrastructure.
Putin’s war in Ukraine is deeply intertwined with his efforts to maintain power at home. He has cracked down on dissent, with the elimination of opposition leader Alexei Navalny serving as a chilling example. Putin views his war as a means to change the geopolitical order, challenging the West’s influence and promoting a new era of Russian dominance.
Internally, Putin has intensified his campaign of repression, targeting not only political opponents but also those who deviate from his prescribed norms. The LGBTQ+ community has been criminalized, access to abortion has been restricted, and school textbooks now declare Russia’s perpetual conflict with the West. Putin’s war has also led to increased surveillance, with treason cases skyrocketing and even friendly figures facing scrutiny.
Despite the severe repression, discontent is simmering in Russia. Protests against the war, though suppressed, have occurred, and anti-war movements, such as Put Domoi, are gaining traction. Opinion polls indicate a decline in support for the war, and there is a growing sense that Russia cannot afford to continue on this path indefinitely.
The economic and social costs of the war are also taking their toll. Putin’s efforts to militarize the economy while maintaining living standards are proving unsustainable. The damage to the economy cannot be repaired without ending the war and lifting Western sanctions, but Putin’s regime is now inextricably linked to the conflict.
As the war drags on, the gulf between Putin’s militaristic ambitions and the desire for normalcy among the Russian people will continue to widen. This growing discontent, coupled with the economic strain, could potentially lead to a change in the balance of power within Russia. However, Putin’s willingness to double down on repression and his tight control over the media and information landscape suggest that any such change is unlikely to come easily.
