The upcoming British general election on July 4th will see Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party face a formidable challenge from the Labour Party, led by Sir Keir Starmer. Immigration has taken center stage in this year’s campaign, with both major parties promising to curb net migration, which has reached record levels in the past two years.
Yash Dubal, Director & Senior Immigration Associate at A Y & J Solicitors, London, sheds light on the potential impact of the election on UK visa policies. He emphasizes that a change in government will likely alter the discourse surrounding immigration in the UK. Under the Conservative Party, the language surrounding immigration became increasingly hostile and toxic, deterring many potential working migrants who considered the UK as an option, leading them to choose other more welcoming nations like the USA or Canada.
Despite the tightening of restrictions on certain visa routes, Britain still presents numerous opportunities for skilled individuals seeking to relocate and work there. The new government may implement measures such as a cap on immigration numbers or further refinement of the Immigration Salary List (ISL), introduced earlier this year to replace the Shortage Occupation List. The Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), an independent body that advises the government on immigration policy, could be strengthened. Notably, MAC recently recommended preserving the Graduate visa route following a review, indicating its likely continuation. This means employers can continue hiring overseas graduates without needing to meet specific salary thresholds.
The government may also consider cracking down on employers and recruitment agencies who exploit the immigration system, potentially banning those found violating the rules from hiring foreign workers. While these measures may seem impactful for Indian workers, Dubal highlights that the assumption of readily available British workers ready to fill roles currently occupied by migrants is misleading. The reality is that even if a pool of potential healthcare workers and builders existed, it would take considerable time to train them. For instance, nursing training requires a minimum of three years, and electrician training takes at least two years.
In the interim, Indian workers remain eligible to fill these roles. A recent report from education think tank Edge Foundation reveals that the number of skills shortage vacancies in the UK doubled between 2017 and 2022, reaching 531,200, and this figure is likely to have risen since. Skills shortage vacancies were most prevalent in Health and Social Work, Business Services, and Wholesale and Retail, while Construction, Information and Communications, and Manufacturing sectors displayed higher proportions of skills shortage vacancies compared to overall vacancies.
Dubal concludes that all these sectors require skilled workers now and, except for wholesale and retail, necessitate multi-year training programs. Therefore, the need for skilled workers remains evident, even with potential changes to immigration policies.
