Opinion polls suggest that Britain’s Labour Party is poised to return to government with a significant majority in Thursday’s national election, ending 14 years in opposition. The election is taking place across 650 constituencies in England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland, with approximately 46 million eligible voters participating. A diverse array of candidates, totaling over 4,500 from nearly 100 different parties, are contesting seats, including more than 450 independent candidates. This year, voters are required to present a photo ID when voting in person for the first time, and it is the first July election since 1945.
Since the last UK general election in December 2019, constituencies have been redrawn to reflect population changes, resulting in some seats being abolished and replaced. One of the abolished seats is North West Durham, where Richard Holden, Chairman of the Conservative Party, was an MP. Consequently, Holden needed to find another seat to contest. His opportunity came when the party selected him for Basildon and Billericay, traditionally a ‘safe seat’ for Conservatives. This seat became available when its former MP, John Baron, announced his retirement in October, having won the seat in 2019 with over 20,000 votes.
Basildon and Billericay traditionally supports conservative values, having voted Conservative in the past three elections in 2015, 2017, and 2019. In this election, Holden faces six other candidates: Christopher Bateman (British Democratic Party), Stephen Conlay (Reform UK Party), Stewart Goshawk (Green Party), Alex Harrison (Labour Party), Dave Murray (Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition), and Edward Sainbury (Liberal Democrat Party).
Despite Basildon and Billericay being considered a safe seat for Conservatives, recent polls suggest that Stephen Conlay is in a strong position to take this long-held Conservative seat. Historically, Basildon became synonymous with the Conservative Party in the early 1980s due to “Basildon Man,” a voter archetype from working-class origins who embraced Thatcherite ideals. A victory for Conlay, a semi-retired retail and property businessman, would be a significant upset, potentially denying Holden a seat and marking Conlay’s first entry into the UK Parliament. Separate predictions from VoteClimate in the UK place Conlay ahead with a majority of over 16,000 votes.
The 2024 election is happening at a critical time for the nation, grappling with pressing issues ranging from healthcare and the cost of living. Current projections suggest that the Conservative Party, led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, may lose power, to welcome the first Labour government in 14 years. According to Ipsos, a leading multinational market research and consulting firm, the top concerns among respondents include healthcare and the National Health Service (NHS) at 41 percent, the economy at 33 percent, immigration at 30 percent, inflation at 29 percent, and housing at 17 percent.
