The ongoing war in Ukraine has severely affected the country’s population, with an estimated eight million people fleeing since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022, according to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). This mass exodus, along with a significant drop in the birth rate, has reduced Ukraine’s population to around 35 million.
Although a formal census has not been conducted, the UNFPA reports a dramatic decline in population. “Overall, Ukraine’s population has decreased by an estimated 10 million since 2014 and by about eight million since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022,” stated Florence Bauer, UNFPA’s regional director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
The war has worsened an already precarious situation. Ukraine had been experiencing low birth rates even before the conflict, with many young Ukrainians seeking opportunities abroad, contributing to a gradual population decline. However, the Russian invasion has accelerated this trend, forcing millions to flee their homes.
Since the invasion, approximately 6.7 million Ukrainians have sought refuge in other countries. The birth rate has fallen to a startling low of about one child per woman, among the lowest rates globally and well below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman needed to maintain the population.
Adding to this dire situation are the estimated tens of thousands of war casualties.
This stark population decline underscores the severe repercussions of the war, affecting not only the immediate lives of Ukrainians but also the country’s long-term future. The rebuilding process post-conflict will be monumental, and a shrinking population will pose additional challenges to Ukraine’s recovery.
