The US automotive market is set to experience a slight dip in new vehicle sales during the third quarter of 2023, according to two prominent industry analysts. While Cox Automotive predicts a 2% decline, JD Power expects a marginal increase, highlighting differing perspectives on the market’s trajectory.
Cox Automotive anticipates 3,897,112 vehicles being sold in the third quarter, attributing the decline to slower sales at General Motors, Toyota Motor, and Stellantis. Despite the overall dip, General Motors is expected to lead the market with 648,043 vehicles sold, followed by Toyota Motor with an estimated 547,460 units. Meanwhile, Honda is projected to see a 10.7% sales increase, solidifying its position as the fifth best-selling brand in the US.
In contrast, JD Power forecasts new vehicle sales to reach 3,882,600 units in the quarter, representing a 0.2% rise compared to the same period last year. This modest increase, however, is attributed to a calendar quirk that shifted the Labor Day holiday weekend into August, boosting August sales and consequently diminishing September sales.
The report also delves into the EV market, with JD Power noting that discounted transaction prices have balanced the lack of consumer interest. Despite the lower interest, EV sales are projected to remain robust due to these enticing discounts, particularly from federal incentives, which have made EVs more affordable than comparable gasoline-powered vehicles.
Cox Automotive expects Tesla Inc. to sell 152,829 vehicles in the US during the third quarter, representing a 2.4% decline compared to the same period last year.
These varying forecasts provide a snapshot of the complexities within the US auto market, highlighting the interplay between industry dynamics, consumer behavior, and economic factors. While the third quarter may witness a slight slowdown, the overall trend suggests continued growth and evolution in the automotive sector, driven by factors like the increasing popularity of EVs and the evolving landscape of consumer preferences.
