The highly anticipated 2024 US presidential election is set to take place on November 5th. However, the razor-thin race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump could leave the nation in suspense for days after the polls close. This is due to differing state laws regarding mail ballot processing, which can create a fascinating dynamic of initial results favoring one candidate before shifting as more votes are tallied.
While one candidate may appear to be leading based on early returns, a rival could close the gap as more votes are counted. This phenomenon, known as a “blue shift” or “red mirage”, has already played out in previous elections, fueling false claims of election fraud.
Here’s a look at how vote counting will unfold in seven key battleground states that are likely to decide the outcome of the election:
Arizona:
Mail voting is extremely popular in Arizona, with nearly 90% of voters casting ballots early, mostly by mail, in the 2020 election. Arizona election officials can start processing and tabulating mail ballots upon receipt, but results cannot be released until one hour after polls close. Mail ballots dropped off on Election Day itself cannot be processed until polls close. These “late early” votes, which can be significant (comprising one-fifth of all ballots in Maricopa County in 2022), can take days to count. The initial results on election night will likely favor Harris, based on early votes, before shifting towards Trump as Election Day votes are tallied.
Georgia:
Early in-person voting is popular in Georgia, with officials expecting 65% to 70% of ballots to be cast at early poll locations. Absentee or mail ballots, comprising around 5% of the vote, can be processed (including signature verification) starting two weeks before the election, but counting can only begin on Election Day. All early votes, both in-person and mail, must be counted and reported by 8 p.m. ET on election night, according to state law. This could create a “blue mirage” in Harris’ favor initially. Officials aim to have all votes, including those from Election Day, tallied by midnight. Ballots from overseas and military voters will be accepted up to three days after the election if postmarked by November 5th.
Michigan:
Following the 2020 election, Michigan implemented early in-person voting for the first time and allowed larger jurisdictions to begin processing and tabulating mail ballots eight days before Election Day, with smaller jurisdictions permitted to start the day before November 5th. These changes aim to speed up results compared to 2020, when mail ballots couldn’t be processed in advance, creating a “red mirage” on election night.
Nevada:
Nevada’s slow vote counting in 2020 led to countless memes, but changes since then are expected to speed up the process. Counties were allowed to start processing and counting mail ballots on October 21st, and workers can now begin tabulating early in-person votes at 8 a.m. PT on Election Day, rather than waiting until polls close. However, Nevada may still not get called immediately. Mail voting is popular in the state, and it’s the only battleground that accepts late-arriving mail ballots, which could create a “blue shift” as more votes are counted. Ballots postmarked by November 5th will be counted if received within four days.
North Carolina:
Election officials start processing and scanning mail ballots before Election Day. After polls close, the initial reported results will likely be mostly mail ballots and early in-person votes. Election Day votes will be counted and reported throughout the evening, with full results expected by midnight. Harris may appear to lead initially due to mail ballots, while Trump could close the gap as Election Day votes are counted.
Pennsylvania:
In the pivotal battleground of Pennsylvania, a clear winner was not declared in 2020 until four days after Election Day due to a backlog of mail ballots. The state is one of the few that does not permit election workers to process or tabulate mail ballots until 7 a.m. ET on Election Day, meaning it will likely take days for the outcome to be known. With more Democrats than Republicans voting by mail, early results based on in-person Election Day votes will likely show Trump ahead, but his lead will likely shrink as more mail ballots are counted. This pattern in 2020 led to false claims of fraud by Trump.
Wisconsin:
Similar to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin is one of the few states that doesn’t allow election officials to process or count mail ballots until the morning of the election, leading to delays in reporting those early votes. Many of the state’s largest cities transport mail ballots to a centralized location for processing and tabulation, which can result in significant batches of votes being reported all at once in the early morning after polls close. This pattern, which played out in 2020, is likely to repeat itself in 2024.With each state having its own set of rules and procedures, the 2024 US presidential election is sure to be a nail-biter, with the final outcome potentially hanging in the balance for days after Election Day.
