The summer of 2024 saw a surge in American outbound travel across European markets, exceeding expectations thanks to mega-events like the Summer Olympics and Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour, both drawing record numbers of U.S. travelers. However, as the summer high season draws to a close, industry experts are now shifting their focus to the potential impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on international travel patterns, particularly as the election date approaches in November.
One of the key drivers behind this year’s surge in U.S. travel was the Taylor Swift Eras Tour, which not only broke records for concert ticket sales but also significantly influenced travel demand. Swift’s tour stops in major European cities such as Paris, London, and Berlin prompted fans to travel internationally, contributing to the rise in outbound travel during the summer months. The tour served as a catalyst for both leisure and cultural tourism, drawing large crowds that filled hotels, restaurants, and other local attractions. Similarly, the Summer Olympics attracted a considerable number of American travelers to Paris, further boosting travel volumes. Known for its international appeal, the Olympics helped solidify Europe’s status as a top destination for U.S. tourists during the event. Travel industry data reveals that hotel occupancy rates in Olympic host cities and neighboring regions increased significantly, creating a ripple effect across European tourism markets.
Now, as the U.S. election season approaches, conversations are turning towards how it will influence outbound travel. The upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election, scheduled for November 5, 2024, is expected to have a short-term impact on both domestic and international travel patterns, especially around the election week and Inauguration Day in January 2025. Historically, U.S. elections tend to disrupt group travel as voters stay closer to home to participate in the electoral process. While the election’s immediate impact is typically more pronounced domestically, it can also have knock-on effects on international travel. For instance, during the election-to-inauguration period of 2016-2017, U.S. hotel performance metrics did not significantly diverge from other months, but there was increased volatility in travel patterns as political uncertainty took hold. Group travel, in particular, experiences a decline during the election week, with businesses postponing non-essential trips and voters opting to remain in the country. Many corporate conferences and events are rescheduled to avoid clashing with election dates, contributing to a temporary dip in business travel activity.
With the summer peak travel season now behind us, it’s normal to see a reduction in U.S. outbound travel as autumn and winter approach. Schools across the country have resumed since early September, and the focus has shifted toward corporate conference season, which typically runs through October and November. While major holidays like Thanksgiving and Christmas present opportunities for international travel, the majority of Americans traditionally opt to stay home and celebrate with family. This pattern is expected to hold for 2024, with the U.S. holiday season running from late November through early January. During this period, travel primarily focuses on domestic trips and short-haul destinations within North America. For Americans who do travel abroad, Europe and Mexico remain popular destinations, but the overall number of international travelers is expected to be lower compared to the summer months. This seasonal shift in travel behavior is further compounded by the U.S. election, which may deter some Americans from traveling abroad during the crucial voting period.
Beyond the immediate election-related impact, broader economic and political factors are shaping travel industry expectations for 2025 and beyond. One area of concern is how potential changes in U.S. foreign policy or trade relations under a new administration could influence global travel dynamics. For instance, visa policies, currency fluctuations, and changes to travel advisories are all factors that could be affected by the outcome of the election. The strength of the U.S. dollar against the euro and other currencies also plays a role in determining the affordability of international travel for Americans. In recent years, a strong dollar has made travel to Europe more accessible for U.S. tourists, but fluctuations in exchange rates could alter this trend, depending on economic policies enacted by the next administration. Moreover, rising geopolitical tensions and regional conflicts could influence travel patterns in certain parts of the world, further emphasizing the role of the U.S. government in shaping the travel landscape.
While the U.S. election is likely to have a temporary impact on group travel, the longer-term outlook for American outbound travel remains positive. The industry expects strong demand for international travel to return in 2025, buoyed by the continued recovery of global tourism and the resurgence of business travel. In the meantime, travel operators and tourism boards are closely monitoring how the political climate will affect consumer sentiment. With mega-events like the 2026 FIFA World Cup on the horizon, the travel industry is positioning itself to capitalize on future growth opportunities, even as it navigates the uncertainty of the current political landscape.