A substantial US$61 billion military aid package from the US is providing vital support to Ukraine in its ongoing conflict with Russia. The arms and ammunition provided by the package are enabling Ukraine to slow Russian advances and protect its troops and civilians. While the aid buys Ukraine time for long-term planning, the road to victory remains arduous.
Russia continues to push along the front lines, and Ukraine faces logistical challenges and bureaucratic delays in receiving shipments. The package authorizes the potential delivery of ATACMS missiles, but their availability remains uncertain. Ukraine still lacks longer-range missiles capable of cutting off occupied Crimea and targeting Russia’s Black Sea fleet.
Despite the challenges, Ukraine aims to regain all its territory, including Crimea, and hopes that increased aid will strengthen its position for future negotiations.
However, some experts doubt Ukraine’s ability to launch successful offensives in the near future, citing the country’s resource constraints. The US funding may only stabilize Ukraine’s position and allow for preparations for operations in 2025.
In the best-case scenario, the American aid will give Ukraine time to reorganize and train its army, learning from the lessons of its failed summer 2023 offensive. It may also galvanize Ukraine’s allies in Europe to increase aid.
Ukraine’s allies have held back from supplying some arms out of concern about escalation or depleting their own stocks. Ukraine says that to win the war it needs longer-range missiles it could use for potentially game-changing operations such as cutting off occupied Crimea, where’s Russia’s Black Sea fleet is based. It wants Army Tactical Missile Systems, known as ATACMS, from the US and Taurus cruise missiles from Germany. Both governments have resisted calls to send them because they are capable of striking targets deep within Russian territory.
The new bill authorises the US president to send Ukraine ATACMS “as soon as practicable”. It’s unclear what that will mean in practice. Sometimes, promised weapons have arrived late, or not at all. Zelensky recently pointed out that Ukraine is still waiting for the F-16 fighter jets it was promised a year ago.
Meanwhile, Russia is using its advantage in troops and weapons to push back Ukrainian forces, perhaps seeking to make maximum gains before Ukraine’s new supplies arrive. For weeks it has pummelled the small eastern city of Chasiv Yar, at the cost of 900 soldiers killed and wounded a day, according to the UK Ministry of Defence. Capturing the strategically important hill town would allow them to move toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, key cities Ukraine controls in the eastern region of Donetsk. It would be a significant win for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who Western officials say is bent on toppling Ukraine’s pro-Western government.
