The 2024 US Presidential election is rapidly approaching, with less than a month until voters head to the polls. Recent polls from Emerson College and The Hill paint a picture of a tight race between Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump. While the contest is close nationwide, one state stands out as particularly pivotal: Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania is considered the most important swing state among seven key states: Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, and North Carolina. Polling data shows a slight advantage for Republicans in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina. In all three states, former President Donald Trump leads with 49% support compared to Kamala Harris’s 48%. Arizona follows a similar trend, with Trump garnering 49% compared to Harris’s 47%. Nevada is the only swing state where the polls show an edge for Harris, with the Democrat leading at 48% support compared to Trump’s 47%. Interestingly, Michigan and Wisconsin show a dead heat, with both candidates tied at 49%.
The Emerson College Polling survey sheds light on the factors influencing voter preferences. Harris’s strength lies in her popularity among Asian and young voters, but she faces challenges with older voters and independents. Meanwhile, Trump’s support remains strong in key states like Wisconsin, fueled by rising speculation that he could win there.
The influence of union households is also a crucial factor in the polls. The Emerson College polls reveal that in Pennsylvania, union households favor Trump (53% to 43%), while Harris holds a slight edge among non-union voters (49% to 48%).
While demographics and union households play a role, economic concerns remain a top issue for voters in most states. In states like Arizona, however, immigration takes precedence for 30% of voters. The economy and immigration are key issues on which Trump and Harris frequently clash, and these factors are likely to play a crucial role in swaying undecided voters as the election nears.
