The US Presidential Election is in full swing, with voting commencing in New Hampshire as early as midnight on Tuesday, November 5th. While the first results from Dixville Notch showed a tie between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican rival Donald Trump, the real race lies in the seven swing states that could ultimately determine the next President. These states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – are where both Harris and Trump have been fiercely competing, as per opinion polls.
However, experts caution that early vote returns might not paint an accurate picture of the final outcome. This is due to varying vote-counting practices and specific quirks in each state. The key to understanding the trends lies in analyzing the combined impact of mail ballots, in-person votes, and early voting.
One significant factor is the potential for a “red mirage,” where initial results show Trump leading due to early in-person votes. This could be followed by a “blue shift” as more Democratic-leaning mail-in ballots are counted, mirroring what happened in the 2020 election. This phenomenon could be particularly pronounced in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Conversely, there’s also a possibility of a “blue mirage” initially favoring Harris, followed by a “red shift” as Election Day votes are tabulated, potentially playing out in North Carolina and Georgia.
The timing and method of processing and counting mail-in ballots will be crucial in determining the final results in each state. Another factor to consider is the concentration of Democratic voters in urban areas, where vote counting tends to take longer.
Here’s a breakdown of what to expect in each swing state:
Pennsylvania:
Early results will likely show Trump in the lead due to higher Republican turnout on Election Day, but this advantage is expected to diminish as mail ballots are counted, favoring Harris.Wisconsin:
Similar to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin doesn’t allow election officials to process mail ballots until election morning, potentially causing delays in reporting early vote results.Georgia:
All early votes, both in-person and mail-in, must be reported by 8 pm ET (0000 GMT) on election night. Officials aim to complete the tallying of all votes, including Election Day votes, by midnight. Votes from overseas and military personnel will be accepted up to three days after the election if postmarked by November 5th.Arizona:
Initial results on election night are likely to favor Harris, based on early votes. However, as Election Day votes are counted, the numbers could shift towards Trump.North Carolina:
If the race is as close as polls suggest, the outcome in North Carolina could remain uncertain for a week or more. Absentee ballots arriving on November 5th, as well as ballots from overseas and military voters, are counted during the 10-day canvass period following Election Day.Nevada:
Any ballot postmarked by November 5th will be counted if it arrives within four days. These late ballots historically favor Democrats, so a shift toward Harris could emerge as votes are counted after Election Day.The path to victory:
A “projected” winner will be declared only after all ballots – in-person and mail-in – are counted. Even then, the tally will only indicate the winner of the “popular vote,” or the candidate receiving the highest number of votes cast.However, the popular vote alone doesn’t determine the winner. The official victor will be declared after the electoral votes are held in mid-December. A presidential candidate requires at least 270 electoral votes to secure the presidency – a victory achievable even if the same candidate loses the popular vote.
As the nation awaits the final results, one thing is clear: the race for the presidency is likely to be close and the path to victory will be determined by the careful counting and analysis of every single vote in these crucial swing states.
