Over eight decades of a complex relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia have witnessed both highs and lows, from the oil embargo of 1973 to the Jamal Khashoggi assassination in 2018. However, two defining moments stand out: the historic meeting between President Franklin D. Roosevelt and King Abdul Aziz Al-Saud in 1945, marking the beginning of a strong bilateral alliance, and the fist-bump between President Joe Biden and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in 2022, signifying a more transactional partnership.
Currently, the two nations are negotiating a potential Strategic Alliance Agreement (SAA), a ‘Grand Bargain’ aimed at aligning Saudi Arabia’s domestic and regional ambitions with the Biden administration’s diplomatic goals. This agreement, if realized, could significantly alter the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and potentially secure President Biden’s re-election.
The SAA is envisaged to have three interlinked components: bilateral, regional, and global. At the bilateral level, it could solidify the existing defense alliance, with the US committing to defending Saudi Arabia in case of an attack, similar to the US-Japan treaty. This would likely include providing Saudi Arabia with advanced military equipment, potentially even F-35 stealth fighters. Surprisingly, Washington is also considering providing nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, despite its non-proliferation policy.
Regionally, Saudi Arabia seeks a ceasefire in Gaza and progress towards a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In return, Washington demands Saudi recognition of Israel and full normalization of diplomatic relations. It also seeks to limit Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy engagements with its rivals, particularly China and Russia.
While the economic underpinnings of the SAA remain unclear, they are likely to be substantial. Though the US is no longer dependent on Saudi oil, the two sides are expected to continue their coordination to stabilize global energy markets. The agreement could also lead to American companies securing a significant share of projects under Saudi Vision 2030.
The potential SAA is a response to China’s growing influence in the region, exemplified by President Xi Jinping’s high-profile visit to Riyadh in December 2022. For the US, Saudi Arabia remains strategically important due to its role as custodian of Islam’s holy sites, its economic significance, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s ambitious reforms.
However, several hurdles threaten the SAA’s realization. A significant trust deficit exists between the two countries, stemming from perceived US unreliability during the 2019 attacks on Saudi oil facilities and the Yemen war. The US’s perceived ambivalence towards Iran and its nuclear deal has also strained relations. Conversely, Saudi Arabia’s growing ties with China and Russia, as well as its reconciliation with Iran, have further complicated the situation.
The ongoing Gaza conflict poses another major challenge. Saudi Arabia’s commitment to a peace agreement with Israel is politically sensitive, especially with the bloodshed in Gaza. Moreover, Senate approval of the SAA would require a Saudi-Israeli détente, which is unlikely under current circumstances.
Despite these challenges, the potential benefits of the SAA are undeniable. A successful agreement could bring stability to the region, create economic opportunities, and facilitate the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor. However, it is crucial for India to pursue its own ‘Act West’ policy without relying solely on this agreement.
The SAA’s success remains uncertain, with multiple potential scenarios. A fully formed agreement could reassert US dominance in the region, benefit pro-Western regimes, and potentially undermine the Palestinian cause. Conversely, a failure to reach an agreement could perpetuate regional instability and leave the Middle East a chessboard for external powers. A compromise agreement, focusing on less ambitious goals, is also a possibility.
The quest for the SAA is a complex and time-bound process, with significant implications for the Middle East and the world. The coming months will be crucial in determining the fate of this ambitious agreement and its impact on the region’s future.
