## USDJPY Analysis: Post-Election Yen Weakness and Emerging Patterns
The USDJPY pair is currently pushing towards its July peak at 155.21 after breaking through a resistance level at 153.87. This bullish momentum could lead to interesting chart patterns, particularly if the strength of the US Dollar (DXY) continues. One such pattern is a potential bearish crab pattern around the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, slightly above July’s highs at 155.55, which might trigger a correction towards the .382% retracement at 149.47.
However, a key question remains: will this DXY strength be sustained or is it a short-term response to the elections? If the bullish momentum persists, the USDJPY could challenge previous highs around the monthly fractal resistance at 161.95. In this scenario, the bearish crab pattern could evolve into a bearish shark pattern as it approaches the 224% Fibonacci extension, curiously aligned with the price of 161.68, just below the major fractal resistance level.
## Beyond the USDJPY: Impact on other Japanese Yen Pairs
Looking beyond the USDJPY, it’s worth investigating how the current environment might affect other Japanese yen pairs. Let’s examine a few key pairings:
AUDJPY:
For the past month, the AUDJPY pair has traded within a tight range between support at 99.07 and resistance at 101.69. The recent American elections prompted the pair to break out of its weekly fractal resistance (acting as support at 99.86) and test the upper limit of this range, as well as daily fractal resistance at 101.69. A breakout over this resistance could lead to a significant upward movement, potentially challenging previous highs at 109.37. However, we must be aware of potential bearish bat patterns forming at 107.17.EURJPY:
Due to the direct relationship between the DXY and the EUR/USD, the EURJPY pair has shown a muted response to the American elections. The pair has only slightly declined following the establishment of the fractal resistance at 166.69. Intraday support around 164.94 is limiting downward movement, raising the possibility that the Yen’s weakening against the dollar could drive upward movement in the EURJPY and other yen pairs. This could ultimately result in a retest of July 11th’s previous highs and the monthly fractal resistance at 175.42. We should also be mindful of potential “reversal” patterns, which are projected at 171.03, indicating a 3.8% upward movement towards the .886% Fibonacci retracement level.GBPJPY:
The GBPJPY chart exhibits a relatively linear price structure. The weekly fractal resistance was broken at 195.97, leading to the formation of a new resistance level at 199.80. This new resistance level has been retested and rejected, resulting in the creation of a new fractal support at 195.38. A confirmed break above the fractal resistance could open the door for a retest of July 11th’s previous highs. Similar to the EUR/JPY pair, the GBP/JPY might form a bearish bat pattern projected at 204.84, at the .886 Fibonacci retracement level, implying a 2.5% increase above the current resistance level.NZDJPY:
The NZDJPY pair has traded within a defined range for 36 days, with resistance at 92.29 and support at 90.05. A confirmed break of this range could trigger an attempt to test the July highs at 99.00. A bearish bat pattern, projected at the .886% Fibonacci retracement level of 97.18, suggests a potential 5.3% increase above the fractal resistance.CADJPY:
Currently, the CADJPY pair is testing resistance. The range between resistance at 110.72 and support at 108.96 is at risk of an upward breakout. If this happens, we could see a significant recovery attempt for the pair. However, similar to the USDJPY projection, a bearish deep crab pattern around 112.96 (just above late-July highs of 112.09) is also a possibility. Despite this potential, the possibility of retesting previous highs remains open for this pair as well. In this scenario, we’ll also be monitoring for the potential formation of a bearish bat pattern, which is projected to emerge around 116.90.## Conclusion: Staying Vigilant in a Shifting Market
As market dynamics evolve in the post-election environment, it’s crucial to remain vigilant, carefully analyzing emerging patterns and resistance levels. By monitoring these key levels and potential patterns, traders can gain valuable insights to optimize their trading decisions during this period of volatility.
