The upcoming vice presidential debate between Republican Ohio Sen. JD Vance and Democrat Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz is generating a lot of buzz. But will it actually make a difference in a close presidential race? While experts agree that the debate is unlikely to significantly sway undecided voters, they also acknowledge that it could have some indirect impact.
“The VP debate is usually pretty [low-profile], they usually don’t get as much attention as the presidential debates,” said Christopher Devine, author of “Do Running Mates Matter?: The Influence of Vice Presidential Candidates in Presidential Elections.” Devine suggested that while the debate might produce some viral moments, it won’t have the same level of influence on voters as the 2008 VP debate when Sarah Palin, on John McCain’s ticket, stole the spotlight.
However, Devine also noted that the vice presidential candidates can have an “indirect effect” on voter choice. “It influences what people think of the presidential candidate, knowing that Donald Trump could have picked anyone and chose JD Vance or that Kamala Harris could have picked anyone and chose Tim Walz, and how they perform on the debate stage,” he explained.
Tevi Troy, a presidential historian and former George W. Bush Cabinet member, agreed with Devine. He pointed out that while many VP debates are forgettable, this one might be different due to the “hide-the-ball campaign” by Vice President Harris. “She didn’t run for the nomination, so she wasn’t scrutinized,” said Troy. “Then she’s been very reluctant to have any unscripted interviews since then, and when she does, it’s usually with a very friendly reporter. Even in the debate against Trump, there’s a perception that the moderators were harder on him than they were on her.”
Troy also highlighted the fact that Walz has been reluctant to explicitly discuss Harris’s views, particularly her more liberal stances. “[Walz] kind of ducks what her views are because if they say what she’s been in the past, which is pretty liberal, [one of the] most liberal U.S. senators, then that’s not popular and not helpful to her political prospects.” However, Troy also acknowledged that Vance has baggage from his past that Walz will likely exploit. “Vance also has a number of things from his past that have surfaced, that have led to bad stories, like the cat-lady thing, for example, and Walz has not been shy about willing to go after Vance and criticize.”
Following the Harris-Trump debate, a Fox News Poll found that voters thought Harris performed better than Trump. With no further presidential debates scheduled before the November election, the vice presidential debate will likely be the last opportunity for the running mates to make their case to voters.
Vance will likely focus on Walz’s progressive policies in Minnesota, while Walz will likely paint Vance as extreme, citing his past statements on abortion. The CBS vice presidential debate airs Tuesday, Oct. 1, at 9 p.m. ET and will be simulcast on Fox News Channel and Fox Business Network.
