Recent polling data reveals a significant shift in favor of the Democrats, with Vice President Kamala Harris emerging as a frontrunner against former President Donald Trump. Since the Democratic National Convention, Harris has consistently led Trump in numerous surveys. Notably, an Outward Intelligence survey, which included 2,191 likely voters, showed Harris leading by over five points in both two-way and five-way matchups, including third-party candidates.
A recent Wall Street Journal poll echoed this trend, showing Harris leading Trump 47%-45% when third-party candidates were included and 48%-47% in a head-to-head race. This marked the first time in over a year that Trump had trailed in a Journal survey. Further solidifying Harris’s lead, Quinnipiac’s first poll of likely voters showed her with a 49%-47% edge, within the poll’s 2.4-point margin of error.
Adding to the momentum, a Suffolk/USA Today poll revealed Harris leading Trump by five points – 48%-43% – among likely voters. Additionally, an Ipsos/Reuters poll of registered voters released on August 29th showed Harris leading with a 45%-41% margin, exceeding the poll’s 2-point margin of error.
These polls consistently highlight Harris’s gains among specific demographics. The two latest surveys indicate a surge in support for Harris among women, Black, Hispanic, and younger voters over the past month.
The collective data paints a picture of a changing political landscape, with Democrats experiencing a surge in support following Harris’s entrance into the race. RealClearPolitics’ latest polling average shows Harris leading Trump by 1.6 points, while FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average shows Harris with a 3.4-point lead.
This shift in favor of the Democrats could have significant implications for the upcoming elections. Harris’s lead over Trump in multiple surveys suggests a potential change in the political landscape, which could influence policy decisions, legislative priorities, and the overall direction of the country in the coming years.
